As US-North Korea talks loom, experts warn Seoul must not be sidelined

As Donald Trump's persistent overtures to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un bring the prospect of US-North Korea talks closer to reality, South Korea's government has expressed cautious optimism, saying dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang is "the only engine capable of addressing the North Korean nuclear threat." With Trump having unilaterally ordered a reduction in joint military exercises and North Korea stepping up its criticism of Seoul, the question of what role South Korea can play is drawing close attention.

Amid growing concern that Washington may tacitly accept North Korea's nuclear status and exclude Seoul from any talks, the Ministry of Unification said the most realistic path forward remains resuming dialogue to halt the North's nuclear program.

A senior Unification Ministry official said that "even at this very moment on Friday, North Korea's nuclear capabilities are growing and inter-Korean relations remain frozen — what other engine is there to move this issue besides resuming US-North Korea dialogue?" The official said arguments that South Korea is being bypassed or excluded are not an effective approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear problem.

However, analysts say careful preparation is needed to ensure Seoul can play a meaningful role and secure tangible outcomes from any US-North Korea talks, given that Pyongyang has consistently made clear its strategic intent to separate inter-Korean relations from US-North Korea relations and to exclude South Korea.

Yoo Ji-hoon, a research fellow at KIDA, said the United States has assessed that North Korea's missile launches do not pose an immediate threat to the US mainland or its allies. "However, they do constitute a real threat to South Korea, and this divergence in threat perception between Seoul and Washington could become more pronounced going forward," he said.

He went on to say that "while respecting the possibility of resumed US-North Korea dialogue, it is important for South Korea to continuously coordinate threat perceptions with the United States so that North Korea's short-range nuclear and missile threats — which are directly aimed at South Korea — are not pushed to the back of the line in US North Korea policy or in future negotiations."

For South Korea, what matters more than the scale of military exercises is demonstrating clearly that sufficient consultation and policy coordination between Seoul and Washington are being maintained. Analysts also say the government should consistently make the case that strengthening independent defense capabilities and the US-South Korea alliance are not competing concepts but complementary ones.

Voices from the American side have also called for reinforcing the alliance.

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a contribution to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that if Trump wants productive talks with Kim, he must immediately address the political fallout with South Korea stemming from the reduction of joint military exercises.

Panda said Trump's "instinct to punish South Korea — driven by a misreading of North Korea's position and a perception that Seoul was distancing itself from US policy toward Iran — has created an unnecessary crisis in the alliance."

He went on to say that this had "created obstacles to a coordinated approach between the US and South Korea," adding that "for Trump to engage productively with Kim Jong-un, the political fallout from his impulsive decision to scale back joint exercises must be addressed immediately."

Some analysts say attention should be paid to the background behind Trump's order to sharply curtail joint exercises. Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said that regarding South Korea's response, "the most important thing right now is to quickly normalize and solidify the US-South Korea relationship," adding that Seoul "needs to work to resolve the issues entangled in this situation — including US investment, the Coupang Inc matter and contributions to the Strait of Hormuz — that Trump has raised."

Lee Kwan-se, a former vice minister of unification, said that "even as conditions for US-North Korea talks take shape, communication between the two Koreas has broken down." He urged the government to "actively engage with the United States and push to be involved in setting the dialogue agenda — including on Korean Peninsula peace and ways to improve inter-Korean relations."