Russians flee across borders as fears of mass mobilization grow

Russia, now more than four years into its war against Ukraine, is weighing a large-scale mobilization order to recruit fresh troops for the front lines — and the prospect has set off widespread unease inside the country.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday (local time) that Russian military authorities visited Kaliningrad — the country's Baltic exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania — last month to review contingency plans and procedures for mobilizing local residents.

Russia is conducting a nationwide review of additional mobilization plans in preparation for a troop shortage. No mobilization order has been issued yet, and the Wall Street Journal expects one will not come before next month's general election.

After the election, however, the calculus may shift. With Russia's troop shortage now serious, the prevailing view is that an additional mobilization order is a matter of when, not if. Analysts say the likelihood is particularly high given that President Vladimir Putin shows no sign of abandoning his drive to seize the Donbas — and is already receiving troop support from North Korea.

The speculation has stirred significant anxiety within Russia. The Wall Street Journal reported that men of draft age are actively exploring ways to flee abroad to avoid conscription.

In practice, Moscow customs authorities said crossings at the border with neighboring Georgia surpassed 20,000 people a day last week — an all-time high.

The prospect of another mobilization order has also produced an unexpected side effect: rising real estate prices in neighboring countries. The expectation that Russian migrants could pour into Georgia and nearby Armenia has sent property markets in both countries climbing.

The Wall Street Journal said additional mobilization could help Russia strengthen its front lines and accelerate advances toward seizing the Donbas.

However, any mobilization order issued after the election would likely not translate into actual troop increases until winter, when fighting typically slows. Questions have also been raised about whether an order timed ahead of winter would have any meaningful battlefield effect.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the move "won't be decisive this year because it's already too late," but added that it "could be a factor in next year's fighting."

A large-scale mobilization would also impose a heavy economic burden on Russia, which is already absorbing blows to its oil exports from Ukrainian drone strikes and Western sanctions.

Alexander Kolyandr, a director at the Eurasia Group consultancy, said Russia is "mortgaging its future for military gain," adding that mobilizing troops in an already labor-scarce economy — and then feeding, arming and paying them — "will put enormous pressure on the budget."