Kospi eyes return to 7,000 as August exports, US jobs data loom

The Kospi is expected to make another attempt at consolidating above the 7,000-point mark next week, with South Korea's August exports — due Tuesday — and the US jobs report on Friday seen as the key variables shaping the index's direction amid sustained optimism over corporate earnings, particularly in semiconductors.

According to Korea Exchange, the Kospi closed Friday at 6,788.88, down 123.49 points, or 1.79 percent, from the previous session. For the week running Monday through Friday, the Kospi fell 1.79 percent while the Kosdaq rose 4.55 percent.

The Kospi drew close to the 7,000 level this week but failed to hold above it. Nvidia's strong earnings helped ease concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, and buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix provided a floor for the market. However, further gains were capped as long-term US interest rates climbed on fiscal health concerns and foreign investors continued to sell.

"The Kospi has broken above its 120-day moving average, downside pressure has eased, and AI sentiment has improved following Nvidia's earnings," said Kang Jin-hyeok, a researcher at Shinhan Investment. "If US-Iran negotiations continue on a positive trajectory, there is a chance that oil prices and interest rates could stabilize."

August exports are seen as the primary domestic variable for the market next week. Securities industry forecasts point to a 64.4 percent year-on-year increase in South Korea's August exports, the figures for which are due Tuesday. With export values having repeatedly set all-time records recently, semiconductor exports are expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate in the triple digits in the third quarter, continuing to drive overall export growth.

"Export momentum remained strong through Aug. 20, with the daily average value of semiconductor exports hitting a record high," said Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, adding that expectations for earnings improvement among domestic companies could grow further.

A string of US employment data releases will also be in focus. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is due Tuesday, followed by the ADP nonfarm employment report on Wednesday and the August jobs report on Friday. Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 60,000 from the previous month. A stronger-than-expected reading could reignite fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing US Treasury yields higher again. Conversely, a gradual softening in the labor market — without a sharp contraction — could ease rate-hike concerns and provide a positive backdrop for domestic equities.

"With a series of US employment indicators on the way, a 'bad is good' dynamic — where weak data calms long-term rates — could contribute to a stabilization in yields," Kang of Shinhan Investment said.

NH Investment set its Kospi forecast range for next week at 6,400 to 7,500 points, citing interest rate stabilization and lower oil prices from US-Iran negotiations as upside drivers and profit-taking as a downside risk. The brokerage expects the market to react sensitively to key economic data — including employment and inflation figures — ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for Sept. 15–16.

"Employment tends to slow seasonally at this time of year, and oil prices are already declining, so we do not expect the data to fuel rate-hike expectations," said Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment. "If rate-hike concerns ease while earnings growth driven by AI infrastructure investment continues, the market could stage a further rebound." He highlighted semiconductors as the core sector to watch, while also flagging the potential for the rally to broaden into secondary batteries and AI platform and service stocks.