Trump secures access to 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil — more than all US reserves

Eight months after ousting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump has secured access to 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude — more than the entire proven oil reserves of the United States — amid growing global supply uncertainty triggered by the war with Iran. The move is widely read as part of a broader strategy to strengthen energy security while shutting out Chinese and Russian influence in Latin America and cementing US dominance over the Western Hemisphere's oil resources.

Trump announced the oil development agreement with Venezuela on Friday (local time), calling it "the largest oil deal in the history of the world."

Under the agreement, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) — a company owned by Alejandro Betancourt, a Venezuelan businessman with close ties to interim President Delcy Rodriguez — will hold development rights to 17 undeveloped Venezuelan oil fields for 100 years. The United States will secure 55 percent of the crude produced from those fields.

The 17 fields hold an estimated 65 billion barrels of reserves, exceeding one-fifth of Venezuela's total proven reserves of 303 billion barrels. Venezuela is the world's largest oil-reserve nation. With US proven reserves standing at roughly 46 billion barrels, the fields covered by this deal alone amount to about 1.4 times the entire US reserve base.

The United States is also pursuing a 35 percent non-voting stake in NABEP and the right to purchase 20 percent of output at cost on a priority basis. The Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) at the Ministry of National Defense has also been mentioned as a vehicle for acquiring shares through penny warrants — options to buy stock at a very low price.

The arrangement is unusual in that the US government would effectively participate as an investor, securing both equity and crude purchase rights. However, the Ministry of National Defense said the OSC does not directly acquire stakes in private companies and is legally limited to providing capital through loans and loan guarantees.

For the Trump administration, the deal represents a major new source of crude at a time when the war with Iran has heightened uncertainty across global oil supply chains. Although the United States is the world's largest oil producer, its domestic output is concentrated in light crude suited for gasoline, meaning it must import significant volumes of heavy crude needed for products such as jet fuel. Venezuela holds abundant heavy crude well-suited to US refinery configurations.

The deal also reflects a calculation to expand US influence across the Western Hemisphere by leveraging Venezuelan oil. The Trump administration has championed what it calls the "Monroe Doctrine" — a push to reassert exclusive US influence throughout the Americas. With the agreement in place, the possibility of a substantial US military presence in Venezuela has been raised, which could sharpen Washington's check on China and Russia, both of which have expanded their footprint in Latin America.

The deal also gives Trump a domestic political boost ahead of November's midterm elections. After the war with Iran drove up global oil prices and added to inflationary pressure at home, Trump has trumpeted the agreement and pledged to replenish the country's depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Yet significant obstacles stand between the 65 billion barrels and actual market supply.

The biggest challenge is investment. Venezuela has a history of nationalizing foreign companies' assets, and political and security instability persists. Years of economic hardship and sanctions have left oil production infrastructure severely deteriorated, requiring large-scale rehabilitation. Some analysts estimate that restoring Venezuelan output to historical levels would require tens of billions of dollars in investment over at least a decade.

It will also be difficult for the deal to pull down global oil prices in the near term, as Trump appears to hope. Substantially ramping up production from undeveloped fields takes considerable time, limiting any immediate boost to global supply.

Whether US oil companies will commit aggressively to investment remains an open question. Despite Trump's encouragement following the arrest and extradition of former President Maduro, companies have remained cautious, citing political uncertainty and investment risk.

Domestic opposition within Venezuela could also determine whether the deal holds. The Venezuelan government has long championed national sovereignty over its oil resources, and criticism that the country has effectively handed its most vital asset to the United States could intensify. The fact that interim President Rodriguez came to power outside of an electoral process adds further uncertainty about whether any future government would honor the agreement.