Taiwan expert: China's military invasion capability to be complete by 2030–2035

China's People's Liberation Army is accelerating preparations for an invasion of Taiwan, a Taiwanese defense expert has said.

According to Taiwanese media outlets including Liberty Times and United Daily News, Je Zhong, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), a think tank under Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, made the assessment Monday in connection with a report on Chinese military power that the ministry submitted to the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament.

Je said this year's report, compared with last year's, reflects China's active incorporation of lessons from international conflicts — including the wars in Ukraine and Iran — into its military training, with a particular focus on analyzing the PLA's modernization and improvements in joint amphibious landing capabilities.

He said the PLA has made enhancing and completing joint amphibious landing capabilities a central priority of its military transformation over the coming years, and assessed that the force has not been significantly affected by command-structure disruptions caused by Chinese President Xi Jinping's sweeping purge of senior military officials.

Je also said China is developing solutions for a Taiwan invasion that include research and development of the Z-20 attack helicopter and unmanned transport helicopters, the latest Type 076 amphibious assault ship, drones, and a new type of specialized landing barge that can also serve as an offshore pier. He added that the PLA's first-wave assault units are aiming to bypass Taiwan's fortified coastal defenses and enter the main island using transport aircraft and helicopters.

He added that China is deploying low-earth-orbit satellite constellations through the "Guowang" and "Qianfan" projects to counter the low-earth-orbit satellites launched by SpaceX's Starlink system — intended to protect communications and provide logistical support for PLA forces after a landing on Taiwan — and is also conducting fourth-generation research and development of its BeiDou satellite navigation system.

Low-earth-orbit satellites typically operate at altitudes of 300 to 1,500 kilometers and are increasingly important for communications and satellite navigation.

Je said Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has assessed that the PLA's joint amphibious landing capabilities still fall short at this stage, and said the ministry's analysis clearly aligns with the current situation.

Nevertheless, he said China is pressing ahead with a military buildup for a forcible invasion of Taiwan, and projected that preparations for such an invasion would be complete between 2030 and 2035.

Meanwhile, in a defense budget report submitted to the Legislative Yuan on Monday, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense outlined a total budget of 691.9 billion New Taiwan dollars, allocating 259.1 billion NT dollars for military investment, 224.7 billion NT dollars for operations and maintenance costs including ammunition procurement and spare parts, and 208.1 billion NT dollars for personnel costs driven by a gradual increase in volunteer soldiers.

The ministry also said it plans to invest 36.04 billion NT dollars between 2026 and 2032 in the development of the Tien Kung 4 Qianggong vertical-launch missile, designed to intercept Chinese tactical ballistic missiles within the atmosphere and at ranges of up to 1,000 kilometers, with delivery expected in 2028.

In addition, the ministry said it plans to spend 45 billion NT dollars to purchase more than 7,000 civilian-specification trucks and off-road vehicles, and that the navy plans to invest 13.85 billion NT dollars between 2027 and 2034 to acquire a submarine rescue vessel and various related equipment.