Black Sea tensions, US heat push global grain futures up 6.2% in Q3

Global grain prices are expected to rise again as military tensions in the Black Sea region stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and a heat wave across the US Midwest weigh on supply outlooks. The international grain futures price index for the third quarter of this year is projected to climb 6.2 percent from the previous quarter, driven by fears of export disruptions, crop uncertainty in the United States and continued Chinese purchases of American corn.

According to the Korea Rural Economic Institute's September grain market report released Saturday, the international grain futures price index for the third quarter is forecast to rise 6.2 percent quarter-on-quarter. The import price index for food-use grains is expected to increase 0.2 percent from the previous quarter, while the index for feed-use grains is projected to rise 0.9 percent.

Tensions in the Black Sea region have emerged as the key variable for wheat prices. August wheat futures rose from the previous month, as ongoing military hostilities surrounding Russia and Ukraine stoked fears of disruptions to grain exports through the Black Sea. However, Russia's available export volumes and supply conditions in major producing countries are limiting the extent of price gains.

The following table summarizes the global grain supply, demand and price outlook for the third quarter of 2026, as compiled by the Korea Rural Economic Institute in its September grain market report.

Global grain supply, demand and price outlook — Q3 2026 Korea Rural Economic Institute, September grain market report

Category / Wheat / Corn / Soybeans World output / 816.64 million tons / 1.34 billion tons / 442.35 million tons World consumption / 818.76 million tons / 1.32 billion tons / 446.08 million tons End-of-period stocks / 272.67 million tons / 288.96 million tons / 72.08 million tons Stocks vs. prior year / down 3.3% / down 6.8% / down 2.1% August futures / up / up / up Key variables / Black Sea military tensions; export disruption fears / US Midwest heat; China purchases / rising production and consumption

Global wheat output this year is projected at 816.64 million tons, while consumption is forecast at 818.76 million tons, exceeding production. World wheat exports are expected to reach 215.06 million tons, with end-of-period stocks at 272.67 million tons — down 3.3 percent from the previous year.

Corn prices are also under upward pressure. Crop concerns have grown due to high temperatures in the US Midwest, and continued Chinese purchases of American corn are adding to that pressure. August corn futures also rose from the previous month.

Global corn output is projected at 1.34 billion tons, with consumption forecast at 1.32 billion tons. Exports are expected to fall 5.0 percent year-on-year to 211.78 million tons, and end-of-period stocks are projected to drop 6.8 percent to 288.96 million tons. Changes in production and consumption in major countries such as the United States and China are seen as key variables for the price outlook going forward.

Soybean futures also rose in August from the previous month. Global soybean output is projected at 442.35 million tons, up 2.9 percent from the previous year. Consumption is forecast at 446.08 million tons, also up 2.9 percent and exceeding production. End-of-period stocks are expected to fall 2.1 percent year-on-year to 72.08 million tons.

Rising international grain prices could, with a time lag, push up domestic grain procurement costs as well.

"The import price index for food-use grains in the third quarter is expected to rise 0.2 percent from the previous quarter, while the index for feed-use grains is projected to increase 0.9 percent," said Won Dong-hwan, a researcher at the Korea Rural Economic Institute. "However, price trends could shift depending on global grain output, export conditions, military tensions in the Black Sea region and weather conditions in the United States."