'The sea route is out': 1,300 tanker trucks a day signal the Middle East's land trade revival

As the war with Iran deepens instability along the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea — the two main maritime arteries of the Middle East — overland trade routes are making a rapid comeback. Crude oil, food, medicine and other essential goods have begun moving by rail and road, and Gulf states are accelerating the construction of rail networks worth hundreds of billions of dollars to shift oil transport from sea to land.

The Economist reported Saturday (local time) that "the prolonged disruption to maritime shipping is rapidly reshaping the economic landscape of the Middle East," adding that "the war appears to be accelerating regional connectivity that diplomacy had long failed to advance."

About 1,300 tanker trucks cross between Iraq and Syria every day, according to Syrian Transport Minister Yarob Badr. The volume carried along that corridor still amounts to only about 5 percent of Iraq's pre-war crude oil exports, but analysts say it could mark the starting point of a broader logistics realignment as the regional conflict shows no sign of abating.

Repeated ship attacks and airport closures since the outbreak of the Iran war have pushed countries in the region to actively seek overland connections to replace existing sea and air transport.

The United States and Gulf states are pursuing plans to link regional countries through pipelines and fiber-optic cables. Israel is also reviving the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) concept, which envisions a route stretching more than 2,500 kilometers from Dubai to Haifa.

The war has also improved the economics of overland logistics. With Dubai's Jebel Ali port in effect out of commission amid the conflict with Iran, cargo and passenger traffic at Dubai International Airport fell 30 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. Goods that once moved by ship or plane are now traveling by road — either more than 2,000 kilometers from Turkey to the Gulf region, or roughly 1,600 kilometers from ports on Saudi Arabia's western coast to the Gulf.

After Iranian ports were blockaded, Pakistan reopened six land border crossings with Iran to clear a backlog of 3,000 Iran-bound containers piled up at Karachi port. Turkish trucks hauled machinery and medicine into Iran, while the UAE and Oman eased border clearance procedures.

Rail networks are also coming back to life. Monthly trade volumes on a newly built railway linking Iran and Afghanistan more than doubled year-on-year during the war. A line running through Turkmenistan toward China faces constraints including differences in track gauge, but its frequency has increased from once to twice a week and it has begun carrying crude oil.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states are also stepping up rail construction. GCC leaders agreed during the war to complete ahead of schedule a 2,100-kilometer, $250 billion rail project connecting Kuwait to Oman.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are also pursuing the restoration of the Hejaz Railway, which once carried pilgrims from Istanbul to Medina. The plan envisions building a new trade corridor linking the Gulf and Europe through Jordan and Syria.

Syria, where roughly two-thirds of the rail network had been rendered unusable by civil war, signed a road and rail expansion agreement with Saudi Arabia and is working to restore a rail link to Beirut with Lebanon.

Chevron, Saudi Aramco and Qatar have expressed interest in a project to rebuild a pipeline running from Iraq to the Mediterranean.

The Iraqi government is also pursuing construction of a $4.6 billion pipeline that would carry 2 million barrels of crude oil per day from Basra to Haditha, near the Syrian border.

The renewed prominence of overland routes in Middle Eastern trade is being described as a shift not seen in centuries. The Economist noted that after Portugal entered the Strait of Hormuz in 1507, the rise of large vessels and oil tankers quickly displaced land routes in favor of sea lanes — but said that trend is now reversing. The magazine added that sweeping sanctions on Iran had already fostered a vast informal overland trade network between Iran and its neighbors, and that the fall of Bashar Assad's government in Syria in 2024 opened a new logistics corridor through the country.

However, analysts caution that expanding overland trade routes is unlikely to fully replace maritime shipping. Building the necessary infrastructure requires enormous investment, and ongoing regional conflict leaves roads and railways vulnerable to missile and drone strikes.

Sea freight also retains an overwhelming cost advantage. According to Minister Badr, maritime shipping costs one-sixth as much as rail, one-twentieth as much as road transport, and one-three-hundredth as much as air freight.

Like the Strait of Hormuz, pipelines face security threats from the regional conflict. Reuters reported Friday (local time) that the East-West Pipeline — which Saudi Arabia had been using as an alternative crude oil route after Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — was attacked and its operations temporarily suspended.