Up to 10 more LNG carriers expected this year — who wins, Korea or China?

With up to 10 more LNG carrier orders expected before year-end, South Korea and China are bracing for a fierce battle over the remaining contracts. South Korea is widely expected to hold on to its lead in the LNG carrier market this year, though analysts say the outcome could shift depending on how aggressively China pursues the remaining orders.

According to industry sources, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering told investors at an IR session hosted by Shinhan Securities earlier this month that global LNG carrier orders this year are expected to reach a maximum of 80 vessels. The company described market conditions as favorable, noting that the volume had been generated without orders tied to US or Qatar LNG projects.

Data from Clarkson Research, the British shipbuilding and shipping market analysis firm, show that 66 LNG carriers were ordered globally from January through Friday. That leaves as many as 14 additional vessels that could be ordered before the end of the year.

South Korea and China have secured 40 vessels (3.53 million compensated gross tons) and 26 vessels (2.24 million CGT), respectively, in LNG carrier orders so far this year — translating to market shares of 61.2 percent and 38.8 percent. If China were to win all remaining orders, it could draw level with South Korea in market share. Industry observers, however, expect South Korea to capture at least a portion of what remains. South Korean shipbuilders have already locked in more than three years' worth of work amid surging demand, but analysts say they have room to take on additional LNG carrier orders to improve profitability. South Korea is therefore expected to maintain its lead in the segment, though China's growing stature — a marked departure from years past — poses a genuine threat.

China has in fact been making inroads into the high-value vessel market, of which LNG carriers are the prime example. Its market share was near zero in the early 2020s before surging to 20.3 percent in 2023 and 42.8 percent in 2024. It stumbled last year with an 8.1 percent share but has rebounded this year. Having shored up the technological competitiveness that was once its chief weakness while maintaining strong price advantages, China has begun attracting the attention of global shipowners.

South Korean shipbuilders are watching China's rise with growing unease. China has already overtaken South Korea in tankers and container ships — segments with relatively lower construction complexity — by competing aggressively on price. Should China also seize the lead in LNG carriers, South Korea's foothold in the global shipbuilding market could shrink further.

With the global LNG carrier market expected to remain buoyant on the back of US project activity, South Korean shipbuilders are banking on advanced, high-value technologies to widen the gap with China.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering is building a 177,000-cubic-meter LNG carrier that uses three cargo tanks instead of the conventional four. The three-tank cargo hold design reduces the space between tanks while keeping the vessel's overall dimensions unchanged, boosting LNG carrying capacity. The configuration maximizes transport efficiency while avoiding the berth-access constraints that come with larger ships. At Gastech 2026, the world's largest gas industry exhibition held in Thailand on Monday, the company unveiled a next-generation LNG carrier equipped with a wind-assisted propulsion system.

Hanwha Ocean showcased a model of a 174,000-cubic-meter carbon-free LNG carrier at Gastech. The vessel is being developed as a fully electric ship powered by an ammonia gas turbine, with the goal of achieving zero-carbon operation — including during the ignition process — without the use of pilot oil. The design targets the growing market for eco-friendly vessels driven by tightening environmental regulations from the International Maritime Organization.