Xi may tell Trump Japan, Taiwan are the real troublemakers in Indo-Pacific

Taiwan's government has warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping may try to convince US President Donald Trump at their upcoming summit that Japan and Taiwan — not China — are the real "troublemakers" destabilizing the Indo-Pacific region, in a bid to extract American concessions.

The assessment came from Shen Yu-chung, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, the island's top body handling cross-strait relations, at a forum on the US-China summit held Monday, according to Taiwan's Liberty Times and other local media.

Shen said Xi could directly pressure Trump on Taiwan and Indo-Pacific issues during Xi's state visit to the United States from Wednesday through Friday.

"Xi will argue that Japan and Taiwan are the true 'troublemakers' disrupting the status quo in the Indo-Pacific," Shen said, adding that Beijing may use this framing to push Washington into making concessions on Indo-Pacific matters.

Shen also raised the possibility that Xi could attempt a form of "cognitive warfare" targeting Trump personally — a strategy that uses false or distorted information to shape an adversary's perceptions and steer their decisions in one's favor.

However, Shen said a fundamental shift in US policy toward Taiwan as a result of the summit was unlikely. He said three core principles would remain unchanged: the structure of US-China strategic competition, Washington's Taiwan policy, and Taipei's own position of maintaining the cross-strait status quo.

Taiwanese authorities are also on alert for a possible intensification of Chinese information operations around the summit.

Shen said China could spread narratives sowing doubt about the United States, skepticism toward Taiwan's own government, and calls for Taiwan to be abandoned — all aimed at fueling pessimism and defeatism in Taiwanese society. The goal, he said, would be to drive a wedge between Washington and Taipei and undermine public morale on the island. He added that such efforts could continue through Taiwan's local elections on Nov. 28.

The Taiwan question has re-emerged as a central security flashpoint between the two countries ahead of the summit.

Taiwan media earlier reported, citing sources, that China had asked the United States not to announce any new arms sales to Taiwan ahead of Xi's visit. As a result, two of the first F-16V fighter jets from a batch of 66 — part of an $8 billion sale Washington approved in 2019 — are reportedly being held in Hawaii.

Taiwanese academics expect the summit to do little more than reaffirm each side's existing positions on Taiwan, with little prospect of new declarations or significant agreements. What matters more than how many times Taiwan is mentioned, analysts said, is how Taiwan's status is defined within the negotiating boundaries the two powers set for themselves — and that remains to be seen.