Memory chip big 3 to unveil earnings after Chuseok as AI demand debate heats up

The memory chip industry will kick off its earnings season after the Chuseok holiday, with Micron leading the way.

With debate swirling over whether big tech companies are pulling back on AI model development, all eyes are on the results the three memory giants will deliver — and what they signal about future demand.

Micron is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter (June–August) results at 5:30 a.m. Oct. 1 Korean Standard Time. The key question is whether the US chipmaker will beat the revenue guidance range of $49 billion to $51 billion it set for the quarter.

Views are divided on the sustainability of memory demand as AI server investment expands, and Micron's results are seen as a key indicator of where the memory market is headed. A beat on guidance would signal that AI-driven memory demand remains robust.

When Micron reported its third-quarter (March–May) results in June, it emphasized that AI demand remained solid, saying memory supply shortages would persist beyond 2027.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are also expected to post record quarterly earnings for the third quarter. According to FnGuide, securities analysts project Samsung Electronics' quarterly sales at 111 trillion won ($81.6 billion) and SK hynix's at around 78 trillion won. Samsung Electronics is expected to release its preliminary third-quarter results on Oct. 8.

The market has been trimming its earnings expectations of late, as the won-dollar exchange rate fell sharply on average during the third quarter. After breaking through 1,500 won per dollar in the second quarter, the rate has dropped to around 1,350 won this month. Because memory chip export revenues are received in dollars, a weaker exchange rate reduces the won-denominated value of those earnings.

Kiwoom Securities accordingly lowered its operating profit estimate for Samsung Electronics in the third quarter from 122 trillion won to 107 trillion won. Citi Securities also trimmed its forecast for SK hynix's third-quarter operating profit slightly, from 7.67 trillion won to 7.4 trillion won.

With major tech companies recently raising the prospect of moderating AI investment, some in the industry warn that explosive growth in memory demand may no longer be a given. Attention is turning to what the three memory makers will say about how long the current supply crunch and price increases can last.

"Memory prices are unlikely to rise further, and demand elasticity is weakening, yet manufacturers remain optimistic about long-term demand and are aggressively expanding capacity — which points to a deteriorating supply-demand balance," said Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment Securities.

Also in focus will be the three companies' high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue figures and any additional long-term supply agreements they announce.

Both Samsung Electronics and Micron have previously said they are targeting HBM market share comparable to their respective shares in the broader DRAM market.

According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, SK hynix held a 50 percent share of the HBM market by revenue in the second quarter, followed by Samsung Electronics at 33 percent and Micron at 18 percent.

Samsung Electronics, which began its serious push into HBM with the sixth-generation HBM4, expects its HBM4 revenue in the third quarter to more than triple from the second quarter, with HBM4 accounting for more than 60 percent of its total HBM revenue in the second half of the year.

Counterpoint Research projected that Samsung Electronics' market share will continue to grow as it ramps up HBM4 shipments.