Q4 mackerel catch forecast at 54,000 tons

The National Institute of Fisheries Science forecast that large purse-seine mackerel catches in the fourth quarter of this year (October–December) will reach about 54,000 tons — roughly 90 percent of the same period last year and about 110 percent of the five-year average.

Fourth-quarter large purse-seine mackerel output stood at 32,441 tons in 2020, 36,613 tons in 2024 and 61,490 tons in 2025.

The institute expects mackerel fishing grounds to form mainly around Jeju waters, with the average body length projected at 29.5 centimeters, in line with normal years. The forecast was generated using an AI prediction model built on 20 years of catch data and oceanographic records, incorporating projected future ocean conditions and operational factors such as storm warnings and fishing bans.

Alongside the forecast, the institute plans to launch a large purse-seine mackerel fishing forecast service. Developed as part of a proactive public-service initiative, the service lets fishers check catch outlooks and current fishing conditions at a glance on their smartphones, replacing the previous report-only format and improving on-site usability.

The service will also provide data on cumulative catches relative to projected hauls by sea zone, as well as the proportion of undersized fish — those with a fork length under 28 centimeters — to help fishers avoid grounds where small individuals are concentrated.

Kwon Soon-wook, director of the National Institute of Fisheries Science, said he hoped "the AI forecast service will help fishers plan their operations and manage marine resources," adding that the institute would "continue improving the service to enhance its practical use in the field."