Bitcoin has already passed its cycle low set in June and may have entered a new bull market, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt, who said the cryptocurrency could reach $300,000 to $600,000 by late 2029 if the current uptrend holds.
Brandt, who predicted the 2018 cryptocurrency crash, shared his outlook on Bitcoin during an appearance on "Trade Secrets," a program on Cointelegraph's YouTube channel, on Saturday.
He said he had originally expected Bitcoin to bottom around Sunday but now believes the actual low formed in June.
"The low we saw in late June is likely the cycle low," Brandt said. "There's a possibility we are now entering a new bull market cycle for Bitcoin." He added: "The bottom is in — it's going up from here."
However, he left open the possibility of a short-term pullback. He said Bitcoin could drop sharply to the $65,000–$66,000 range in early October before finding support, and noted that a slide to $61,000 was also possible in some scenarios.
Brandt said such a correction could flush out weak hands — investors who recently bought into the rally — clearing the way for a cleaner advance. "Markets rarely go straight up from a bottom with a lot of weak buying," he said, noting that a consolidation phase could help stabilize the market.
On whether Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 this year, Brandt said pinpointing a specific timeframe was difficult. "I'm more sensitive to time than price," he said, adding that hitting $100,000 by year-end was not the key metric for him.
Instead, he projected a much larger gain over the longer term if the bull cycle continues. "This bull cycle could extend through late 2029," Brandt said, "and the cycle peak could come in somewhere between $300,000 and $600,000."
He based part of his analysis on the next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 2028. Following the historical pattern in which roughly half of a cycle's gains materialize before the halving and the rest follow afterward, Bitcoin could reach around $250,000 by early 2029, he said.
Brandt also said investors should not lock themselves into a single view. "You need to hold both a bullish scenario and a bearish scenario for Bitcoin at the same time," he said, adding that probability estimates should be updated continuously as new information emerges.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been trading in a range around 113 million won despite a deteriorating macro backdrop that includes rising US long-term government bond yields. According to CoinGecko, a global virtual assets data platform, Bitcoin was trading at $83,654 as of 9 a.m. Wednesday.
bbo@heraldcorp.com