Aramco CEO warns global oil supply system near its limits, says restocking could take 2 years

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabian state oil giant Aramco, warned Monday (local time) that the global oil supply system is nearing its limits and that replenishing depleted inventories could take up to two years.

According to Reuters and Bloomberg, Nasser made the remarks at an energy information forum in London — his first in-person address since the outbreak of the war between the United States and Iran.

"The system is already approaching its limits," Nasser said. "The buffer capacity to absorb supply shocks has become frighteningly thin, with very few places the world can turn to for supply."

"The harsh reality is that pressure on oil markets will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and market confidence is restored," he added. "Even then, it could take up to two years to meet demand while also refilling inventories."

Nasser estimated that the loss of Middle Eastern oil supply since the war began has approached 3 billion barrels — roughly half the volume of crude and refined products that would otherwise have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Emergency releases from strategic petroleum reserves have exceeded 1 billion barrels.

Nasser said restoring all inventories would be equivalent to generating an additional demand of 2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Global oil demand currently stands at around 100 million barrels per day.

Other energy executives at the forum also sounded warnings.

Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said the shortfall in refined products caused by the war stands at 6 million barrels per day, adding that "global refining capacity is insufficient to make up for the volumes blocked from the Middle East Gulf region."

Ryan Lance, chairman of US energy company ConocoPhillips, said global oil demand may not recover until 2028 or 2029.

Tengku Muhammad Taufik, CEO of Malaysia's Petronas, said he expects "chaos through the end of the year, possibly into 2027."