Young people who relocated from the provinces to Greater Seoul more than doubled their incomes within five years, a new report shows. Before moving, they earned less than peers who stayed behind in the regions — but after the move, their incomes rose so quickly that they eventually surpassed even those of long-term metropolitan residents.
Particularly striking was a sharp income surge in the first one to two years after relocation. Analysts say the concentration of jobs and the resulting income gap in Greater Seoul are driving young people to leave their home regions.
According to a report released Sunday by the National Data Research Institute titled "Analysis of Income Changes Following Youth Population Migration," young people who moved from outside Greater Seoul to the metropolitan area in 2018 and remained there recorded an average annual income of 48.2 million won ($36,400) in 2023.
Over the same period, young people who had continuously lived in Greater Seoul averaged 46.94 million won, while those who stayed in the provinces averaged 43.29 million won.
Those who relocated to Greater Seoul earned 1.26 million won (2.7 percent) more than long-term metropolitan residents and 4.91 million won (11.3 percent) more than those who remained in the provinces.
The migrants were not a high-earning group to begin with. Their average annual income stood at just 21.66 million won the year before their 2018 move — the lowest among all three groups compared — yet by 2023 it had reached 48.2 million won, a gain of 26.54 million won, or 122.5 percent, over six years.
In 2017, long-term Greater Seoul residents averaged 26.79 million won and those in the provinces averaged 26.33 million won, meaning the future migrants earned 5.13 million won and 4.67 million won less, respectively.
The gap began closing almost immediately after the move.
In 2018, the year of relocation, the migrants' average income rose 26.4 percent to 27.38 million won. By 2019 it climbed another 20.4 percent to 32.96 million won.
Over the same stretch, income growth among young people who stayed in the provinces was limited to 12.1 percent and 8.9 percent in those respective years.
The migrants' income growth rate exceeded that of provincial peers by 14.3 percentage points in the first year and by 11.5 percentage points the year after.
By 2019 — just one year after the move — the migrants' average income of 32.96 million won had already overtaken the 32.14 million won average of those who had stayed in the provinces, reversing the income ranking in a single year.
In 2021, their average income reached 40.26 million won, surpassing the 40.05 million won average of long-term Greater Seoul residents.
The upward trend continued, bringing the figure to 48.2 million won by 2023.
Compared with their 21.66 million won baseline in 2017, that represents a 122.5 percent increase. Over the same six years, long-term Greater Seoul residents saw their incomes grow 75.2 percent, while those who stayed in the provinces saw growth of 64.4 percent.
The migrant group's income growth rate exceeded those of the other two groups by 47.3 percentage points and 58.1 percentage points, respectively — the group that started with the lowest incomes grew the fastest and outpaced both comparison groups.
The pattern was not unique to those who moved in 2018.
Researchers who separately analyzed young people who relocated to Greater Seoul in 2019 and 2020 found the same rapid income surge in the period immediately following the move.
Among those who moved in 2019, average income rose 19.1 percent — from 25.17 million won in 2018 to 29.98 million won in the year of the move.
The following year, 2020, it grew another 17.4 percent to 35.19 million won, sustaining double-digit income growth even as the COVID-19 pandemic suppressed economic activity. By contrast, long-term Greater Seoul residents posted income growth of 7.0 percent that year, and those in the provinces 6.0 percent.
The 2019 migrants' income growth rate exceeded those of the other two groups by 10.4 percentage points and 11.4 percentage points, respectively.
By 2023, the 2019 migrant group's average income had risen to 47.16 million won — 220,000 won more than long-term Greater Seoul residents and 3.87 million won more than provincial peers.
Young people who moved to Greater Seoul in 2020 followed a similar trajectory. Their average income rose 14.6 percent from 28.25 million won in 2019 to 32.38 million won in 2020, then climbed another 18.7 percent to 38.44 million won in 2021.
Their 2023 average income was 46.5 million won — 440,000 won below that of long-term Greater Seoul residents but 3.21 million won above that of those who stayed in the provinces.
While final income levels varied depending on when the move was made, all three migrant cohorts shared a common feature: a rapid income rise in the first one to two years after relocating, after which growth rates gradually converged toward those of long-term metropolitan residents.
Researchers said the income gains tend to be largest in the early period following a move to Greater Seoul, with the pace of growth moderating over time.
The income gains from moving to Greater Seoul also differed by gender.
Men who moved from the provinces to Greater Seoul in 2018 averaged 54.96 million won in 2023 — 1.22 million won (2.3 percent) more than the 53.74 million won average of men who had continuously lived in Greater Seoul.
Women who made the same move also outearned their provincial counterparts, but fell slightly short of long-term female metropolitan residents.
Women who relocated to Greater Seoul in 2018 averaged 38.04 million won in 2023 — 4.59 million won (13.7 percent) more than the 33.45 million won average of women who stayed in the provinces, but 320,000 won (0.8 percent) less than the 38.36 million won average of women who had continuously lived in Greater Seoul.
The same gender gap appeared in the 2019 and 2020 migrant cohorts: men who moved to Greater Seoul eventually surpassed the average income of long-term male metropolitan residents, while women who moved outearned their provincial peers but did not quite catch up to long-term female metropolitan residents.
Researchers said the findings confirm a link between moving to Greater Seoul and income growth, and called for improvements in regional job conditions outside the capital area.
The study tracked young people who earned labor or business income every year from 2017 to 2023 and compared income changes by place of residence. It did not control for individual variables such as education level, occupation or job changes, and excluded young people who had no income in any year during the analysis period.
The National Data Research Institute said youth migration and income changes are closely interrelated, with differences emerging by direction of migration, gender and age group. It particularly noted that because income growth among young people who moved to Greater Seoul was markedly stronger than among those who stayed in the provinces, securing quality jobs in non-metropolitan areas where young people can steadily increase their earnings is a key challenge for balanced regional development.
rainbow@heraldcorp.com
