Vance takes lead on Iran war talks, with his political future on the line

Vice President JD Vance is considering direct talks with a senior Iranian hardliner to end the war with Iran, stepping to the forefront of cease-fire diplomacy after President Donald Trump granted him negotiating authority. Analysts warn, however, that with Vance's standing as a 2028 presidential contender already shaken by the Republican Party's midterm losses, the success or failure of any negotiations could determine his political fate.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday (local time), citing American and Middle Eastern officials as well as sources familiar with the negotiations, that Vance is weighing a face-to-face meeting with a senior Iranian security official.

Trump has told senior aides and Middle Eastern contacts that Vance is open to resuming dialogue with Iran, and has in fact granted him authority to negotiate, sources said. American officials cautioned, however, that discussions about a direct meeting remain at an early stage.

The Iranian official under consideration as Vance's counterpart is Mohsen Rezaei, secretary general of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei is a close confidant of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's supreme leader, and a hardliner who previously commanded the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Vance sent Rezaei a letter last month requesting a meeting. The two sides have not yet set a specific date but are conducting follow-up consultations through intermediaries. Should a meeting take place, Doha, the capital of Qatar, is being considered as the venue.

A direct negotiation between a US vice president and a senior Iranian security official would be highly unusual. The Journal said Vance has recently taken on a more active role in Iran diplomacy than existing envoys, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Analysts say the move carries considerable political risk for Vance. If Iran refuses to make meaningful concessions on core issues and talks collapse, the blame for failing to end the war could fall squarely on him.

His position as a leading 2028 presidential contender has already been weakened by the Republican Party's recent midterm losses. A successful end to the war would give Vance a diplomatic achievement to anchor a political comeback, but a breakdown in negotiations could deepen his political liabilities.

An additional complication is that Trump has privately questioned a previous Iran agreement that Vance helped broker.

According to the Journal, Trump in recent weeks privately criticized the MOU with Iran reached in June — an agreement Vance helped negotiate — and questioned whether the deal had been a mistake. Trump's concern was that the agreement gave Iran time to regroup and secure oil revenues before a US maritime blockade could take effect.

Vance has publicly identified the Iran war as one of the causes of the Republican Party's midterm losses, a stance that has set him apart from other key figures in the White House.

As the Trump administration seeks to restart cease-fire negotiations with Iran, a direct meeting between Vance and the country's hardline security chief would mark a significant turning point in US diplomacy toward Tehran.