Anthropic IPO differs from SpaceX listing — Samsung Electronics, SK hynix seen as beneficiaries

With Anthropic's NASDAQ listing set for Nov. 19, attention is turning to the outlook for South Korean semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Unlike the SpaceX initial public offering in June, foreign investors have already sold Korean shares in large volumes, analysts say, limiting the scope for further selling. At the same time, expectations are growing that if Anthropic channels the proceeds from its listing into data center investment, it could prove a bigger tailwind for domestic chipmakers than the SpaceX IPO was.

Lee Seung-hoon, head of the research center at IBK Investment Securities, said Thursday that additional capital outflows from the South Korean market triggered by the Anthropic listing would likely be limited. "Both the domestic and US markets have fallen sharply of late, so I think the impact on fund flows will be contained," Lee said.

Lee said market conditions now differ from those at the time of the SpaceX listing in June. Back then, investors poured money in amid a broad market rally, but both domestic and overseas equities have since fallen sharply, making it harder to raise fresh cash by selling shares. "Money has already left, and less will come in as a result," he said, adding that the scale of fund movements around the listing would be smaller than what was seen with SpaceX.

Observers note that South Korea's asset management industry is also mindful of the SpaceX experience. A string of ETFs designed to include Anthropic have been launched, but fund managers are said to be carefully weighing the timing and size of their purchases. Concerns about buying at the top have grown after returns on SpaceX-related ETFs were cut roughly in half following that listing.

According to Korea Exchange data, foreign investors net sold 9.84 trillion won ($7.36 billion) worth of Kospi-listed shares between Nov. 2 and Nov. 11. During the same period, they offloaded 5.16 trillion won of SK hynix shares and 1.72 trillion won of Samsung Electronics shares. The two stocks together accounted for 6.88 trillion won in net selling — roughly 70 percent of the total.

Analysts say the positive impact of the Anthropic IPO on South Korea's semiconductor sector could exceed that of the SpaceX listing. While SpaceX focuses on launch vehicles and satellite communications, Anthropic's AI model development and service operations require large-scale data centers and semiconductors — a key distinction.

According to an amended registration statement Anthropic filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, the company's long-term contracts and commitments related to computing and infrastructure total approximately $900 billion. The figure represents contractual obligations over an extended period rather than new capital expenditure, and underscores the company's enormous demand for AI infrastructure.

Lee said a successful Anthropic IPO would ease concerns about an AI bubble and give the company the capital needed for infrastructure spending, making it a positive development for domestic chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. "It is a positive for Korean semiconductor and infrastructure-related companies in that it creates the conditions for investment in data centers and the like," Lee said.

Institutional investor interest in the Anthropic IPO has also been building. Orders from institutional investors in the book-building process ahead of the Thursday listing are said to have reached several times the number of shares on offer. Anthropic is set to price the offering on Wednesday, with a target range of $70 to $78 per share. The public offering alone could raise up to $64.4 billion. Including pre-allocated shares, total proceeds could reach as much as $90.4 billion, according to Reuters and Bloomberg. At the top of the price range, the company's fully diluted valuation would stand at approximately $1.4 trillion.

In the United States, AI investment sentiment is showing signs of recovery, driven by improved earnings at AI cloud company CoreWeave. On Wednesday (local time), CoreWeave surged 24.71 percent to close at $60.77 on the New York Stock Exchange. Third-quarter sales came in at $3.66 billion, up 168 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA rose 169 percent to $2.26 billion.

CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator's announcement that he was suspending plans to sell additional shares also helped lift sentiment. Intrator had previously sold 8.26 million shares under a trading plan established in November last year. His decision to hold off on further sales eased some of the criticism that had mounted over large insider disposals during the stock's decline.

US semiconductor stocks also rallied in the wake of CoreWeave's earnings. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 5.66 percent. Micron jumped 11.89 percent and SanDisk surged 13.69 percent. SK hynix's American depositary receipts also climbed 9.71 percent.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said it was CoreWeave's credit concerns that had set off the chain of corrections in AI stocks since October, but that the mood had been gradually improving since the earnings release. The growth in CoreWeave's sales and order backlog demonstrated the resilience of AI demand, Han said.

Han also assessed the strong book-building demand for the Anthropic IPO as "a sign that investors' willingness to supply capital to the AI industry remains high." Han added that while concerns about AI investment profitability and credit risk had not fully dissipated, "factors have emerged on both the demand and supply sides that are easing market worries."

However, Anthropic's share price could see significant volatility in the early days of trading. Its fully diluted valuation at the top of the IPO price range stands at approximately $1.4 trillion — lower than the $2 trillion figure once discussed, but still elevated. Lee cited selling pressure from existing shareholders and valuation concerns, saying "the key question is at what level it lists." Lee added, "I think it will face considerable downward pressure early on."

A securities industry official said the Anthropic IPO's reception would be "an event that confirms the market's interest in and confidence in the AI industry," but cautioned that "the actual investment needs to follow the fundraising, and ultimately what matters is whether users grow and revenue expands."