'Punish insurrection' vs. 'check one-party rule': Local elections set to reshape Korea's political map

South Korea's June 3 local elections and National Assembly by-elections are one day away, with both major parties launching final get-out-the-vote drives Tuesday. The Democratic Party of Korea is campaigning on "restoring national normalcy by punishing insurrection forces," while the People Power Party is urging voters to check what it calls the ruling party's unchecked grip on power.

The elections — the first nationwide vote since President Lee Jae Myung took office — will simultaneously decide 16 regional government heads, 227 basic-level government heads and council seats and 14 National Assembly by-election races. Analysts say the results could significantly redraw the country's political landscape.

The dominant frame shaping the contest is "Lee Jae Myung versus anti-Lee Jae Myung." Most analysts say debates over local policy pledges and regional issues have been overshadowed by competing arguments over whether to stabilize or constrain the Lee administration.

The Democratic Party is pressing voters to hand it control of local governments so it can work in step with the Lee administration, while the PPP is urging a check on what it calls ruling-party dominance. Democratic Party leaders visiting campaign sites have promised to "unleash a budget bonanza through the power of the ruling party," though critics have dismissed the pledge as rosy electioneering given the absence of any concrete funding figures.

The Democratic Party framed the elections early on as a "political reckoning against insurrection forces" and a chance to fully close the chapter on the Dec. 3 emergency martial law crisis. The party's strategy is to consolidate a three-pillar power base — legislature, executive and local government — by winning control of regional administrations as the ruling party.

Han Byung-do, co-chair of the party's joint standing election committee, told a floor strategy meeting Tuesday that voters must "pass judgment on the incompetent and irresponsible local governments that rode in on Yoon Suk Yeol's coattails four years ago and wrecked their regions." He added that "the Lee Jae Myung government must succeed."

Party leaders are pushing a fiscal-pledge offensive built on the ruling-party premium, working to spread the message that candidates who can work in step with the Lee administration must be elected to ensure stable governance.

The Democratic Party is targeting victories in at least nine of the 16 regional government races. General campaign headquarters chief Cho Seung-rae said the previous day that the party's internal assessment still classified six races as competitive and one as a disadvantaged contest. The party considers North Gyeongsang Province a disadvantaged region, while Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang Province and North Jeolla Province are all rated as toss-ups.

The PPP, the main opposition party, is countering the Democratic Party's insurrection narrative by foregrounding its message of checking the ruling party. The party's calculation is to win over centrist voters by arguing that the Democratic Party has spent the past year fixated on the martial law crisis and insurrection blame game while neglecting livelihoods and future growth engines.

The PPP is warning that a triple burden of rising jeonse and monthly rent costs, higher taxes and heavier interest payments has been squeezing ordinary citizens since the Lee administration took office, and is urging voters to use Tuesday's ballot to stop it.

Jang Dong-hyeok, the party's standing election committee chair, issued a public appeal at the PPP's central headquarters in Yeouido on Tuesday. "We must now put a stop to Lee Jae Myung and the Democratic Party's economy-wrecking rampage and their tyranny that is destroying people's livelihoods," he said. "Every single vote cast for the People Power Party will be the force that revives our economy and protects our lives."

The PPP has classified eight races as competitive: Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, Ulsan, Gangwon Province, South Chungcheong Province, North Chungcheong Province and South Gyeongsang Province. Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province are considered safe seats.

Ha Sang-eung, a political science professor at Sogang University, said the elections began with the odds considerably in the ruling party's favor. "For the time being, the scenario is that the ruling party may not win by a large margin — not that it loses," he said. He added that whatever the outcome, the results were likely to favor the ruling party given current conditions.

Ha said the by-elections were a more important bellwether than the regional government races. "What matters far more is how these results shape the internal power struggles within the Democratic Party and the PPP," he said. "The National Assembly by-elections are more consequential for the parties than the local elections, because whoever becomes the next party leader will determine who controls the power to hand out candidate nominations for the 2028 general election."