Kicks are key for Gaethje against Topuria, says coach who trained Strickland

Kicks have been identified as the key to victory for "The Highlight" Justin Gaethje (37, United States) as he prepares for the fight of his life against Ilia Topuria (29, Georgia).

The two meet in the main event of UFC 317 at the White House on June 14 in a title unification bout pitting reigning champion Topuria against interim champion Gaethje. Betting sentiment has tilted heavily toward Topuria — so heavily that some observers have called it a mismatch.

As of Tuesday, North American sportsbooks list Topuria as a -600 to -700 favorite and Gaethje as a +425 to +500 underdog, implying an 80 to 87 percent probability of a Topuria victory.

So is there any path to victory for the heavy underdog? Eric Nicksick, head coach at Extreme Couture — the gym that produced middleweight champion Sean Strickland — said in a recent interview that Gaethje's kicking game could be the answer. "If you look back at the Poirier fight, pay attention to the moment Gaethje suddenly throws that same-side head kick," Nicksick said, pointing to kicks as the way to open up an opportunity.

As Nicksick's reference to Gaethje's head-kick KO of Dustin Poirier in July 2023 suggests, Gaethje is primarily a boxer-wrestler but is highly capable with his kicks. Six of his 20 knockout wins have come via head kick, leg kick or knee kick.

"He needs to use kicks to disrupt Topuria's movement," Nicksick said. "Throw a lot of same-side kicks, use them to get out of range, and keep Topuria's right hand constantly occupied."

Nicksick also pointed to vulnerabilities Topuria showed against Jai Herbert, where he was rocked by a head kick. "There were a few flaws in that performance against Herbert," he said. "Guys like Trevor Wittman and Gaethje will have good strategies to make it a competitive fight."

Taken together, Nicksick's advice is that Gaethje should lean heavily on his kicking game — one of his genuine strengths — to limit openings for Topuria's devastating rear right hand and look for counter-attack opportunities.

In practice, however, this is easier said than done. The idea of using kicks to neutralize Topuria's forward pressure is hardly new — combat sports analysts and online communities have been making that argument for two or three years. Because Topuria relies on a boxing-heavy, forward-pressure style, the theory holds that an opponent who maintains distance and mixes high, mid and low kicks can disrupt his advance.

Observers have also noted that Topuria sometimes blocks or absorbs roundhouse kicks with only one arm, and that his boxer's stance — which keeps his head relatively low — may leave him exposed to head kicks and knee kicks. The inference is that his kick defense is far from airtight.

Yet many analysts push back, arguing that Topuria has too many options to simply allow the fight to play out on those terms. He carries a powerful calf kick of his own and responds to incoming kicks with punch counters or by closing the distance. The fact that former and current champions Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway both landed kicks against him but still ended up knocked out is frequently cited as evidence of his resilience.

Adding to Gaethje's burden is the fact that, despite his boxing-first reputation, Topuria possesses high-level wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills, giving him the ability to adapt to whatever strategy his opponent brings. Whether Gaethje can scale what looks like an impregnable fortress remains the central question heading into fight night.