Opta supercomputer gives South Korea 42.9% chance of beating Czech Republic

Football statistics firm Opta has put South Korea's chances of beating the Czech Republic in their 2026 FIFA World Cup Group A opener at 42.9%.

Opta published the forecast on its website Wednesday, giving South Korea a 42.9% probability of winning the first group-stage match. The Czech Republic's chances of claiming victory were put at 31.1%, with a draw given a 26.0% probability.

South Korea trails the Czech Republic in their all-time head-to-head record, with one win, two draws and two losses, though the last meeting was a decade ago, limiting its relevance. South Korea currently ranks 25th in the FIFA world rankings, ahead of the Czech Republic at 40th.

Opta noted that the two sides last met in June 2016, with South Korea coming out on top. Yun Bit-garam opened the scoring in the 27th minute, and Seok Hyun-jun doubled the lead in the 40th minute. The Czech Republic pulled one back through Marek Suchy just one minute into the second half but could not find an equalizer.

"This year, South Korea's attack has been led by Cho Gue-sung (FC Midtjylland) and Son Heung-min (LAFC), who are the team's joint top scorers with two goals each," Opta said. It added that the Czech Republic also poses a threat up front, with Ladislav Krejci (Wolverhampton Wanderers) and Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen) each netting twice this year.

Opta projected South Korea's Group A finish as follows: first place at 22.4%, second at 28.4%, third at 26.8% and fourth at 22.4%, putting the team's overall probability of advancing to the round of 32 at 70.1%. Mexico was given the highest odds of topping the group at 48%, while the Czech Republic's chances of finishing first stood at 18.4%, behind South Korea's 22.4%.

Opta had initially released projected outcomes for all 48 nations competing in the North America World Cup on June 2 and has since updated its figures through additional simulations.