Iran emerges stronger after US strikes as hardliners consolidate power

Despite months of military strikes by the United States and Israel, Iran's ruling system has not buckled. If anything, analysts say, hardliners from the military and intelligence services have tightened their grip on power, leaving the regime more entrenched than before — a result that runs directly counter to Donald Trump's claim that the war would push Iran toward a pragmatic, negotiation-ready government.

The Washington Post reported Friday (local time), citing security officials and experts, that the ongoing funeral proceedings for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei symbolize the inauguration of a new hardline power structure.

At the center of that structure is Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, the former supreme leader's son and designated successor. He has not appeared in public since sustaining injuries in the airstrike that killed his father. Yet the new elite surrounding him is assessed to be younger than the previous generation and more capable of controlling state institutions.

This cohort studied the strategic vulnerabilities the United States exposed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is considered adept at wielding soft power — including diplomacy and online influence operations.

"Iran's economy, industry and some strategic capabilities may have been weakened, but the world is ultimately facing a new Iran that is bolder and more confident than before," said Raz Zimmt, head of Iran research at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.

In practice, hardliners from the military and intelligence services now dominate the inner circle of power. Mohammad Baqer Zolgadr, the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is a veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Ahmad Vahidi, named IRGC commander, is a prominent hardliner who led the violent crackdown on women's rights protests in 2022. Mohsen Rezaei, appointed as the supreme leader's military adviser, has long championed an aggressive posture toward the United States and Israel.

By contrast, the influence of civilian politicians — including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who led negotiations with Washington — has sharply diminished. Experts say Trump's threat to "annihilate Iranian civilization" backfired, handing hardliners a "regime survival" argument that undercut the moderates' standing.

The new leadership's most pressing challenge is demonstrating, at home and abroad, that Mojtaba can exercise authority as supreme leader. "If the supreme leader does not appear even at his own father's funeral, suspicions about his health or a weakening of his grip on power will only grow," said Norman Roule, a former CIA official.

However, an Iranian diplomat who requested anonymity said Mojtaba is most likely staying out of public view deliberately, out of concern about a potential assassination attempt by the United States or Israel. Experts believe he is nonetheless making final decisions on core strategy and negotiations with Washington from an undisclosed location.

The war also reaffirmed for Iran the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Post. The new leadership leveraged the threat of retaliatory strikes against US allies in the Middle East and the prospect of closing the strait to maximize economic pressure, using both as bargaining chips to strengthen its hand in negotiations.

Even after the truce reached in April, Iran maintained that it could resort to military force again if necessary — a posture that analysts say helped it extract some economic concessions from the United States. At the same time, the leadership has built a domestic narrative of having survived the war, using it to reinforce internal cohesion.

"The Iranian leadership has a very strong sense that it has survived," a senior European official told the Post. "It has reconfirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is its most powerful negotiating card, and it now believes it can dictate the terms of any talks."