China's Pacific missile test likely JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, US expert says

A US expert has assessed that the strategic missile China test-fired toward the Pacific on Monday was most likely the JL-3, a submarine-launched ballistic missile capable of reaching targets across the continental United States.

China's military announced Monday that a naval strategic nuclear submarine had successfully launched a single submarine-launched strategic missile carrying a simulated training warhead into open waters of the Pacific Ocean, but did not disclose the missile's specific specifications.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said the JL-3 was the most likely candidate for the missile tested, according to The New York Times.

China's third-generation SLBM, the JL-3 has a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers, putting most of the globe within reach, including the US mainland. SLBMs are considered a more formidable nuclear capability than land- or air-launched weapons because they are fired from submarines that can maneuver covertly and are difficult to detect. China publicly unveiled the JL-3 at a military parade last September.

The test marks China's first strategic missile launch aimed at the Pacific in 22 months, following an intercontinental ballistic missile test in September 2024.

Lewis said the test signals that China will accelerate testing of nuclear-capable weapons for years to come. Pointing to the growing sophistication of China's new nuclear forces, he said the launch "suggests a new era of testing where all the systems can openly show what they can do."

Analysts interpret the move as a clear signal that China has fully abandoned its long-held "hide and bide" posture in foreign and military policy and has begun openly asserting its military rise with the confidence of a major power.

"In the past, China restrained its ICBM testing compared to other countries for political reasons, but now the political dynamics have changed and China appears to have adopted an approach of testing more," Lewis said, adding that Beijing appeared willing to accept the political costs of pushback from the United States and other major powers.