South Korea's early-July exports hit record $29.8b, led by semiconductor surge

South Korea's exports in the first 10 days of July surged more than 50 percent from a year earlier, driven by a semiconductor boom, setting an all-time record for the period and breaking the mark set just one month prior. If the trend holds, total exports this month could exceed $100 billion for the second consecutive month.

Experts welcomed the strong export performance but cautioned that volume trends warrant close attention, and called for policies to strengthen industries beyond semiconductors as well as the domestic market.

According to the Korea Customs Service, exports from July 1 to 10 reached $29.8 billion on a customs-clearance basis — a preliminary figure — up 53.9 percent from the same period a year ago and the highest ever recorded for that 10-day window.

The previous record for the July 1–10 period was $28.6 billion, set from June 1 to 10, itself broken within a month. The number of working days stood at 8.5, unchanged from the same period last year.

Cumulative exports from January through early July reached $526.19 billion, up 48.6 percent from the same period last year. Analysts say South Korea is now within striking distance of the long-sought milestone of $1 trillion in annual exports for the first time in history. That threshold would surpass the export total of the Netherlands — ranked fourth globally last year — which stood at $989.2 billion.

At that pace, South Korea would also overtake Japan, which ranked sixth in the World Trade Organization's merchandise trade statistics last year with exports of $739.3 billion.

Semiconductors are driving the record export performance. In the first 10 days of July, semiconductor exports jumped 193.0 percent to $11.2 billion, the highest ever for the July 1–10 period. Semiconductors accounted for 37.6 percent of total exports, up 17.8 percentage points from a year earlier. A surge in fixed prices, fueled by explosive memory chip demand from the global AI infrastructure investment boom, has pushed semiconductor exports to record highs for 15 consecutive months through June.

Nine of the top 10 export categories posted gains: petroleum products (up 22.7 percent), vessels (75.1 percent), wireless communications devices (92.4 percent), passenger cars (5.7 percent), home appliances (17.8 percent), computer peripherals (208.1 percent) and steel (12.9 percent), among others. Auto parts were the lone decliner, falling 11.7 percent.

By destination, exports rose across all major markets: China (up 88.7 percent), the United States (43.2 percent), Vietnam (92.8 percent), the EU (28.9 percent) and Taiwan (49.7 percent). The top three markets — China, the United States and Vietnam — together accounted for 51.7 percent of total exports.

Imports came in at $23.5 billion, up 17.4 percent from a year earlier.

Imports rose across semiconductors (up 49.6 percent), crude oil (19.0 percent), gas (24.8 percent), machinery (7.8 percent) and semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.5 percent). Energy imports — covering crude oil, gas and coal — climbed 23.4 percent.

By country of origin, imports increased from China (up 25.1 percent), the United States (4.7 percent), Japan (7.6 percent) and Taiwan (57.6 percent), while those from the EU fell 4.4 percent.

With exports outpacing imports, the trade balance posted a surplus of $6.4 billion.

However, while South Korea's exports have grown in value terms, export volumes have been negative for three consecutive months from April through June. Nominal growth rates reflect both volume and price changes, but real growth rates are measured by volume, not price.

Ju Won, head of research at the Hyundai Research Institute, said the overall picture is positive but noted that export volumes were negative from April through June. "We need to build a strong domestic demand base to prepare for a scenario where the export value growth driven by rising unit prices begins to reverse," he said.