South Korea's semiconductor exports seen hitting $400b this year, up 130%

South Korea's semiconductor exports could reach $400 billion this year, driven by sustained growth in IT-sector shipments, according to a forecast presented Thursday.

Lee Ji-han, head of strategic planning at the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, made the projection at the 90th Industrial Development Forum, hosted by the Korea Industries Forum on Thursday at the Korea Automobile Building in Seocho-gu, Seoul. The forum was themed "Diagnosing and Responding to Industrial and Economic Conditions in the Second Half of 2026." "Domestic semiconductor exports are expected to reach around $400 billion, up approximately 130%, on the back of rising memory chip prices and demand for AI servers," Lee said.

Cumulative semiconductor exports in the first half of this year reached $192.4 billion, already surpassing last year's full-year total of $173.4 billion.

Lee said the global semiconductor market is expected to grow 54.1 percent year-on-year to $1.25 trillion this year, crossing the $1 trillion threshold for the first time. "The cumulative price increase from 2024 to 2026 stands at 815.0 percent for DRAM and 600.2 percent for NAND," he added.

He also projected that global semiconductor capital investment and big tech capital expenditure would rise 16.5 percent and 67.3 percent, respectively, this year.

Lee cautioned, however, that the sustainability of investment and China's push to catch up in AI chips and DRAM could be key variables.

The IT devices sector is also expected to maintain its upward trajectory. Kim Jong-gi, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, said second-half exports in the segment are projected to rise about 110 percent, driven by stronger SSD demand and higher prices.

Kim added that a potential contraction in demand for mid- to low-end products — including a decline in PC and smartphone shipments due to memory chip supply shortages — could weigh on the sector.

Jang Sang-sik, head of the International Trade and Commerce Research Institute at the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), said exports in the second half are expected to continue growing, led by IT industries including semiconductors, computers, wireless communications devices and displays, with general machinery, shipbuilding, biotech health and secondary batteries also likely to perform relatively well.

In the automotive sector, domestic sales and production are forecast to rise 2.7 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, while exports are expected to slip 0.3 percent, partly due to the expansion of overseas local production.

Steel, petrochemicals and textiles are expected to see export declines amid challenges including Chinese oversupply, rising protectionism and higher production costs.

South Korea's economic growth rate this year is forecast at 2.5 to 3.0 percent. Citing projections from domestic and international financial and research institutions, Jang said the outlook for the Korean economy had been revised upward from an initial forecast of around 2 percent to the 2.5–3.0 percent range, supported by strong exports of semiconductors and AI hardware.

Jeong Man-gi, chairman of the Korea Industries Forum and former vice minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, said first-quarter exports rose about 37 percent year-on-year while real GDP expanded 3.8 percent. He added that if those trends were applied on an annualized basis, an annual export growth rate of around 50 percent could push the growth rate as high as approximately 5.1 percent.

The Korea Industries Forum counts 19 member associations spanning machinery, medical data, displays, biotech, semiconductors, batteries, department stores, petroleum, cement, engineering, aerospace, automotive mobility, electronics and IT, zero-trust security, shipbuilding and offshore plants, steel, chain stores and chemicals.