After BYD, space? China's reusable rocket success challenges SpaceX

China has successfully recovered the first-stage booster of its next-generation reusable rocket, throwing down a challenge to SpaceX's dominance of the reusable launch market. Securities analysts say China is emerging as SpaceX's most formidable rival, though SpaceX still holds a commanding lead in reusable technology and launch track record.

Global investment bank Bernstein said in a July 14 report that "China is set to emerge as SpaceX's most likely competitor, intensifying competition across the global space industry."

Behind that assessment lies China's advances in reusable rocket technology. The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation announced it had successfully recovered — for the first time — the first-stage booster of its Long March-10B Y1 rocket at sea after a launch from the Wenchang Commercial Space Launch Site in Hainan Province, southern China, on July 10.

China notably adopted a steel cable net recovery system distinct from the one used on the Falcon 9, charting its own independent technological path.

The achievement has prompted assessments that China has become the most credible challenger to SpaceX's near-monopoly on the reusable rocket market. Bernstein said the success "reinforces the perception that reusable rocket technology is no longer SpaceX's exclusive competitive advantage."

Park Gwang-nam, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said the combination of a proven medium-to-large reusable rocket and state-level industrial support would accelerate China's rise in space. "We are at the very beginning of a shift from an era of American monopoly over reusable launches to a two-superpower structure," he said.

Bloomberg assessed that China's space industry today closely resembles where its electric vehicle sector stood a decade ago — when Chinese EV makers went largely unnoticed before BYD and CATL went on to reshape the global market. A similar trajectory could unfold in space, the analysis suggests.

Initial public offerings by Chinese private space companies are also coming in rapid succession. In June, Landspace — often called "China's SpaceX" — filed a preliminary listing application on the Star Market. The company announced through its IPO a target of turning profitable by 2029. Kim Seung-min, a researcher at KB Securities, called it "an aggressive goal that would need to compress and replicate in less than one-third the time it actually took SpaceX to commercialize the Falcon 9."

According to Investing.com, SpaceX shares have been on a downward trend since closing at $160.95 on their first day of trading on June 12, falling to $135.27 on Wednesday — a decline of more than 15 percent in just over a month since the listing.

However, Bernstein maintained its price target of $239, saying SpaceX's technological edge remains overwhelming. The firm cited SpaceX's roughly 165 launches last year and nearly a decade of accumulated reusable rocket expertise as the basis for its continued confidence in the company's substantial technical lead.