S. Korea's per-capita GDP estimated at $39,164 this year; Taiwan seen surging past $45,000

South Korea's per-capita GDP is on track for its largest increase in five years, driven by strong semiconductor exports, raising the prospect of crossing the $40,000 threshold for the first time. If the average won-dollar exchange rate falls below 1,456.1 won for the year, the country could achieve that historic milestone before year's end.

Taiwan, which is benefiting from the same global semiconductor boom, is forecast to surpass $45,000 in per-capita GDP this year in a single leap, widening its lead over Korea further.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Statistics, South Korea's per-capita GDP this year is estimated at $39,164.

That represents an increase of $2,750, or 7.6 percent, from the previous year — the largest gain since 2021, when it rose by $3,882, or 11.5 percent.

The government, in its second-half economic growth strategy announced July 14, revised its forecast for this year's nominal growth rate up to 12.3 percent. Fueled by a semiconductor boom driving strong exports, that would be the highest nominal growth rate since 1996, when it also stood at 12.3 percent.

Applying that rate to the 2025 nominal GDP figure of 2,676.67 trillion won ($1.8 trillion) from the government's latest economic trends report, known as the Green Book, yields a projected nominal GDP of 3,005.91 trillion won this year.

Converting that figure to US dollars using the average won-dollar rate of 1,487.19 won — based on the 3:30 p.m. rate through Thursday — and dividing by the total population of about 51.61 million as projected by the Ministry of Statistics produces the per-capita GDP estimate.

Applying the same method to the government's projected nominal growth rate of 4.6 percent for next year, with the current average exchange rate, puts next year's per-capita GDP at $41,024 — which would mark the first time it has exceeded $40,000.

Under this scenario, South Korea would move its per-capita GDP from the $30,000 range — which it first crossed in 2016 at $30,839 — to the $40,000 range after 11 years.

South Korea's per-capita GDP climbed to $35,359 in 2018 but fell for two consecutive years, dropping to $33,652 in 2020 amid the pandemic and other headwinds.

It rebounded sharply to $37,534 in 2021, buoyed by the post-COVID-19 economic reopening, large-scale stimulus measures and a base effect, only to retreat to $34,875 the following year as inflation rose and interest rates were hiked.

Growth slowed further in subsequent years before staging a sharp recovery this year on the back of a semiconductor boom and strong exports.

If the average won-dollar rate for the year falls by about 30 won to below 1,456.1 won, South Korea could enter the $40,000 era this year for the first time.

This year's strong performance will push the Korean economy past 3,000 trillion won in won terms for the first time in history. South Korea's total nominal GDP first crossed the 2,000 trillion won mark in 2018 at 2,006.97 trillion won, then surpassed 2,500 trillion won in 2024 at 2,564.2 trillion won, before jumping to 3,005.91 trillion won this year.

If the current exchange rate holds, the economy is also expected to exceed $2 trillion in dollar terms for the first time.

South Korea's dollar-denominated GDP first crossed the $1 trillion mark in 2006 at $1.09 trillion, but slipped to $983 billion in 2009 during the global financial crisis.

It recovered to $1.19 trillion the following year and fluctuated gradually since, before moving into a new range this year at $2.02 trillion.

On July 14, the government set a medium- to long-term target it called the "3-4-5 economic leap" — a potential growth rate of 3 percent, a top-four ranking in global exports, and per-capita national income of $50,000.

According to relevant government ministries, Taiwan's statistics agency, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, raised its per-capita GDP forecast for this year from $44,000 to $45,610 in an economic outlook released May 29.

That would mean Taiwan's per-capita GDP, which stood at around $39,500 last year, surges past $40,000 and straight into the $45,000 range in a single year. The figure reflects a forecast of 9.64 percent real GDP growth for Taiwan this year, underpinned by expectations of a semiconductor windfall.

Even as South Korea's economy stages a rare strong rebound this year, Taiwan's faster pace of expansion means the gap between the two countries in per-capita GDP terms could widen further, analysts say.

The IMF, in an April report, projected per-capita GDP for South Korea and Taiwan this year at $37,412 and $42,103, respectively — a gap of about $4,700 in Taiwan's favor.

However, South Korea's per-capita GDP estimate of $39,164, derived from government projections, and Taiwan's official figure of $45,610 show a gap of $6,450 — wider than the difference the IMF projected three months ago.