Bogged down in Iran war, Trump turns back to Kim Jong-un — but experts warn summit could be 'catastrophic'

With no clear exit from the war with Iran, US President Donald Trump has again emphasized his "good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and signaled a willingness to resume dialogue. But American media and analysts are skeptical that any summit would yield results, arguing that North Korea has already treated its nuclear status as a fait accompli — and that watching the Iran war has likely only deepened Kim's conviction that nuclear weapons are indispensable.

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Trump is taking diametrically opposite approaches to two adversaries: waging war against Iran, which had been on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, while sending conciliatory signals to North Korea, which already possesses nuclear weapons capable of striking the US mainland.

Trump recently announced he had ordered a significant reduction in the scale of joint US-South Korea military exercises, while repeatedly stressing his relationship with Kim. "I have a very good relationship with Kim Jong-un," he said, leaving open the possibility of renewed engagement with Pyongyang.

The Times noted that Kim is a familiar counterpart for Trump. During his first term, Trump met Kim three times — in Singapore in 2018, in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2019, and at Panmunjom. The two leaders exchanged personal letters and projected a warm rapport, but never reached an agreement that meaningfully constrained North Korea's nuclear program.

Conditions surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue have deteriorated sharply since then. Pyongyang has made clear that denuclearization is no longer on the negotiating table and has substantially expanded its nuclear and missile capabilities. Its deepening military cooperation with Russia has also reduced whatever incentive it once had to negotiate with Washington.

Joel S. Wit, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center who previously served as the State Department's North Korea coordinator, warned that rushing into a US-North Korea summit under current circumstances could be "catastrophic."

"President Trump doesn't seem to realize that Kim Jong-un has no interest in improving relations with the United States," Wit said. "Kim is focused on maintaining his nuclear capabilities, sending troops to support his ally Russia, and threatening South Korea."

Analysts also say the US-Iran war could make it even harder for North Korea to ever give up its nuclear weapons.

Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Kim will have been watching the US-Iran war closely, and that the conflict has likely reinforced North Korea's belief in the necessity of developing nuclear weapons.

Cha said the Iran war has shown North Korea "that it is right to pursue nuclear weapons development to avoid military attack." That suggests the North Korean leadership's judgment that it must never abandon its nuclear arsenal to deter a US military strike has only hardened.

The Wall Street Journal also sharply criticized Trump's decision to scale back the joint exercises in an editorial.

The Journal said the reduction "sends a message to the North Korean regime that it is weakening deterrence and readiness," and that it risks the appearance of the United States offering military concessions unilaterally, with no substantive denuclearization steps from Pyongyang in return.

The paper also warned that the decision could deepen distrust of US security commitments among allies not only in South Korea but across Asia and Europe. If doubts grow about Washington's resolve to defend its allies, countries may move to strengthen their own defense capabilities independently, it said.

The Journal said calls for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal could grow louder. With North Korea expanding its nuclear forces and joint exercises now being scaled back, anxiety in South Korea over the reliability of US extended deterrence could intensify, it argued.

Analysts say this is precisely why Trump's personal rapport with Kim is unlikely to reverse North Korea's nuclear buildup if he pursues summit diplomacy using the same playbook as his first term. Even if Trump seeks to use renewed dialogue with North Korea as a diplomatic breakthrough while the Iran war drags on, winning any substantive concession on denuclearization will be harder than ever, they say.