A top scientist at CATL, the world's largest battery manufacturer, has forecast that new-energy vehicles — including electric, hydrogen and hybrid trucks — will account for 50 percent of heavy-truck sales in China by 2028.
Wu Kai, CATL's chief scientist and a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, made the remarks Friday at the World Power Battery Conference, according to Chinese financial outlet Caixin.
"Just as with passenger vehicles, once the penetration rate of new-energy heavy trucks crosses a critical threshold, it will rise rapidly," Wu said. He added that the new-energy penetration rate for heavy trucks had already reached 10 percent in 2024, signaling that the sector had entered a phase of full-scale development.
China's Ministry of Transport and 10 other government agencies jointly released an action plan in May to accelerate the large-scale adoption of new-energy heavy trucks. The plan set targets for 2030: a new-energy penetration rate of 40 percent, a total fleet of about 1.6 million new-energy heavy trucks, and a share of around 20 percent of all heavy trucks in operation.
New-energy vehicles have been gaining ground rapidly in China's heavy-truck market this year. Sales data released by the China Commercial Vehicle Network, excluding exports, showed that 166,500 new-energy heavy trucks were sold from January through July, a 74 percent increase from the same period a year earlier, with a penetration rate of 35.3 percent. In July alone, the penetration rate hit a record high of 47.3 percent.
Caixin attributed the surge to two main factors: the continued rollout this year of a government trade-in subsidy program encouraging operators to replace older commercial freight vehicles with new ones, and the improved economics of electric heavy trucks as the Middle East war pushed up oil and natural gas prices.
bigroot@heraldcorp.com
