North Korea unlikely to top agenda at US-China summit, Chinese experts say

Chinese experts say North Korea is unlikely to be treated as a central agenda item at the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, even if the issue comes up. With Pyongyang already in possession of nuclear weapons, analysts say persuading it to give them up would be extremely difficult — and the wide gap between Washington and Pyongyang over sanctions relief leaves little room for the two leaders to offer meaningful solutions.

Zhou Bo, a researcher at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, said Tuesday at a press briefing for domestic and foreign media in Beijing organized by the All-China Journalists Association that he believes "the likelihood of US-China cooperation driving a resolution to the North Korea issue is very small."

Zhou, a former senior colonel in the Chinese military, acknowledged that Trump has recently shown interest in the North Korea issue but said tangible results would be hard to achieve. "I think the results Trump can achieve are limited," he said, "because it is currently very difficult to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons."

He also cited North Korea's view of its nuclear arsenal as essential to its survival. Zhou said Pyongyang's drive to possess nuclear weapons stems from "self-defense, guaranteeing its sovereignty, or maintaining its political system."

He went on to say that China itself could not escape the consequences of a nuclear conflict on the Korean Peninsula. "The entire length of the Korean Peninsula is 1,100 kilometers," he said. "If a nuclear conflict were to occur there, even tactical nuclear weapons would produce enormous casualties on both sides from radioactive fallout."

While China has a stake in peace and stability on the peninsula, Zhou said the two countries cannot resolve the issue on their own. "For China, safeguarding peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is beyond doubt and something China very much wants," he said, "but there is not much the US and China can do in the current situation." He added that he does not expect North Korea to be a major topic at the summit.

Sun Chenghao, an associate researcher at the same center, also said he sees little chance of North Korea emerging as a core agenda item at the US-China summit set to be held at the White House on Thursday.

Sun noted that Washington itself remains divided over how to approach the North Korea issue. "It seems that for years there has been debate within the United States over whether denuclearization should still be the precondition," he said, adding that "in fact, the United States already acknowledges that North Korea is a nuclear-armed state."

He also flagged sanctions relief — a longstanding North Korean demand — as a major obstacle to any future negotiations, saying it remains unclear how far the United States would be willing to go in easing sanctions in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.

Sun said the two countries can certainly discuss North Korea, but stressed that "the ultimate resolution of the North Korea issue is not something the US and China alone can decide." He noted that the two countries do not operate as a "G2" model and that other parties — including South Korea and Russia — are also part of the equation, making it "unrealistic" to expect a comprehensive package solution to emerge from the summit.

"North Korea will certainly come up," he said, "but it will not be pursued as a major agenda item."