US experts call Xi summit extension of 'fragile truce,' say AI rivalry unchecked

The summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has extended a "fragile truce" that has kept the two countries from open conflict, American experts said.

While the two leaders' reaffirmation of their commitment to stable relations was seen as an achievement, analysts said deep disagreements over trade, AI, Taiwan and Iran leave the durability of the current calm very much in doubt.

Daniel Kritenbrink, former US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said at an online briefing hosted by consulting firm The Asia Group on Friday (local time) that what Trump and his team want above all is to keep the US-China relationship stable. "This visit should be seen as a success by that standard — it extends the fragile truce that has held between the two sides since last fall," he said.

Former Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, in a media commentary, said dialogue is useful but "pretending that fundamental conflicts have been resolved is not helpful," adding: "Pandas are cute, but what America needs is rare-earth magnets."

Russel said the true test of the relationship will be whether both sides follow through on commitments reached at this summit and in earlier agreements — including tariff reductions, Chinese purchases of American agricultural products and Boeing aircraft orders, and rare-earth exports.

Thomas Christensen, a Columbia University professor and former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, also described the summit at a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) roundtable as "a kind of truce — and a fairly fragile one."

Even with the bilateral trade truce extended by two more months through Jan. 10, Christensen said, "looking a year out, there will be many problems in the relationship, including in the economic sphere."

Some analysts, however, pointed to the strong signal of intent both leaders sent on stabilizing ties.

Edgar Kagan, a CSIS senior fellow and former senior director at the White House National Security Council, noted the exceptional level of hospitality and protocol Trump extended to Xi, saying it demonstrated "a will to stabilize the relationship that goes beyond a simple truce."

AI — an arena of fierce US-China competition — was also on the agenda, with both sides exploring possible cooperation, but analysts said the underlying strategic rivalry is unlikely to change.

The two sides have been discussing establishing an AI hotline to notify each other and communicate in the event of an AI-related incident.

Kritenbrink said the effort was worth attempting but noted that existing hotlines between the two countries have not functioned properly, predicting this one "probably won't work either."

He added that the summit "will do nothing to suppress either side's competitive instincts around AI."

Both the United States and China regard AI as a core industry and strategic technology that will determine national competitiveness, and analysts said the summit is unlikely to ease that rivalry.

Lizzi Lee, a researcher at the Asia Society's Center for China Analysis, said there was "no breakthrough, let alone a grand bargain, on AI governance issues," adding that "neither side wants to be held back by the other in the broader AI competition."

On Taiwan, analysts said China put forward demands that went a step further than before.

Bonnie Lin, CSIS director for China affairs, said "an important shift" had occurred compared with the summit in May.

At that meeting, Xi had stated only the general principle that the United States must not "mishandle" the Taiwan issue. This time, Beijing explicitly demanded that Washington oppose Taiwan independence — a sign, Lin said, that China's position has hardened.

Lin said Beijing may have calculated that pressing Washington to change its official stance from "does not support" to "opposes" Taiwan independence is more achievable than trying to alter US arms sales policy toward Taiwan.

Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society, said Beijing is trying to create the impression that "opposition" is already an established US position that Washington should "maintain" — "but that is not the case." He urged the United States to reaffirm its longstanding position on Taiwan and push back against China's framing.

Christensen said China's primary goal is to demoralize Taiwan — whether through military pressure campaigns or diplomatic efforts with the United States — and that Beijing "clearly intends to use this summit to undermine Taiwan's morale."

He added that he expects the United States to sell arms to Taiwan within roughly the next year, and that China's reaction to such a sale could become another source of friction in the relationship.

Kritenbrink, however, said he views Xi's remarks as a reaffirmation of China's longstanding position and does not believe Beijing's stance has become "particularly hardened."

Iran also emerged as a variable that could affect the bilateral relationship going forward.

According to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency, Xi urged both the United States and Iran at the summit to resolve their differences through negotiations.

Russel said there is "zero chance" Xi will join the United States in its "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.

Christensen also expected China to support Iran's efforts to rebuild its conventional deterrence against the United States and recover economically, predicting that the Trump administration's frustration over these issues will grow over time.