S. Korea's CPTPP bid risks 'boy who cried wolf' credibility problem

"The Lee Jae Myung government, like the Moon Jae-in government before it, is signaling interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership only to ultimately abandon the effort — just like the boy who cried wolf. It will inevitably erode South Korea's credibility with CPTPP member states and the broader international community."

A government official who handled CPTPP affairs under the Moon administration voiced that concern.

As the Lee government pumps the brakes on CPTPP accession — as the Moon government did before it — out of sensitivity to opposition from farmers and fishers, analysts warn that South Korea's international standing could suffer. There are also growing concerns that the country may squander opportunities to expand export markets and diversify its trade relationships.

President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday directed relevant ministries not to file a formal CPTPP membership application this year, according to government sources.

The move reflects concern that pushing ahead unilaterally with CPTPP accession — which is expected to hurt the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sectors — could deepen distrust among farmers already anxious about the government's farmland probe.

The government had originally planned to join the CPTPP ahead of China as a way to mount a coordinated response to protectionism emanating from the world's two largest economies, sources said.

The stakes of delay are particularly high given the CPTPP's unanimous-consent accession structure: the more members join, the more parties South Korea must win over, effectively raising the price of entry over time.

The CPTPP is a large-scale multilateral free trade agreement that officially launched in 2018 after the United States withdrew from its predecessor, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Twelve countries are now members, including Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore. Their combined economies account for roughly 15 percent of global GDP. The pact aims for a high level of market opening, with member states phasing out most tariffs on goods traded among themselves.

The Moon administration formally pursued accession in 2021 and completed its internal decision-making process through a written ministerial meeting on April 15, 2022, but never filed a formal application due to backlash from farmers and fishers and delays in reporting to the National Assembly. With local elections approaching in June 2022, the government could not clear the Assembly's threshold amid resistance from farming constituencies. While South Korea hesitated, the bloc's membership grew from 11 to 12 when the United Kingdom joined in 2024.

Under the Act on the Procedures for Conclusion and Implementation of Trade Treaties, the government — specifically the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy — must brief the National Assembly's standing committee on trade and industry before opening any trade negotiations. While the committee's approval is not required, a formal application cannot proceed without the briefing.

Even if South Korea were to file an application, the process of negotiating with existing members and narrowing the gap with domestic farming and fishing interests would take at least one to two additional years.

China filed its membership application in 2021. This year, Costa Rica's accession negotiations were substantially concluded in May, and Uruguay's talks are ongoing. Indonesia, the Philippines and the UAE are at the preliminary consultation stage with existing members.

Because new members are admitted only by unanimous consent of existing members, every country that joins before South Korea adds another party whose approval Seoul must secure. The longer the application is delayed, the higher the effective cost of entry.

Proponents of swift accession also point out that neither the United States nor China is currently a member, making the CPTPP a venue through which South Korea could strengthen free-trade norms and deepen trade and investment cooperation in the face of US-China tensions and spreading protectionism.

In addition, joining would relieve South Korean companies operating in Mexico — a country with which Seoul has no free trade agreement — of tariff burdens. Mexico this year began enforcing amendments to its General Import and Export Tax Law that raise import tariffs by up to 50 percent on goods from countries without an FTA, directly hitting South Korean exporters.

However, the CPTPP's existing members have liberalized 99.1 percent of their goods markets, with agricultural products averaging 96.1 percent — effectively full openness — and many members are major agricultural producers. That means South Korea's farming sector faces a substantial blow. It is precisely this prospect that has driven opposition from farmers' groups.

Sanitary and phytosanitary, or SPS, rules are a particularly sensitive issue for the agricultural community, as joining could dismantle non-tariff barriers that currently allow South Korea to block imports of certain fruits and livestock products on a country-by-country basis. Items currently undergoing SPS review include apples from New Zealand and Japan, pears from Japan, and peaches from Australia — meaning key fruits could be opened to imports the moment South Korea joins.

On rules of origin, the criteria for qualifying for CPTPP preferential tariffs are broadly similar to those in existing FTAs, and fresh agricultural products are subject to strict standards such as wholly obtained status, which helps prevent circumvention through third-country routing. For processed foods, the range of raw materials eligible for preferential tariff treatment would expand to cover all CPTPP member countries, which could work in South Korea's favor when exporting processed food products.

"The Moon administration publicly pledged to apply for CPTPP membership and ultimately failed to follow through," said a trade policy academic. "The Lee government also appears to be positioning itself to delay or abandon the application rather than finding a way to overcome opposition from farmers and fishers." The academic added that "this kind of attitude damages South Korea's credibility in the eyes of CPTPP member states."

Meanwhile, a government inter-agency economic impact assessment found that South Korea's real GDP would be 0.38 percentage points higher 10 years after the CPTPP takes effect than it would be without membership. The annual average production boost to the manufacturing sector over 15 years is projected at between 6.3 trillion and 6.7 trillion won ($5 billion), while agricultural output is estimated to fall by an average of 710 billion won per year.