IMF sees Japan slipping to 6th in GDP rankings next year, behind India and UK

Japan is set to fall from fourth to sixth place in nominal GDP rankings by 2027, the International Monetary Fund projected.

According to Japanese media including the Nikkei, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook estimated Japan's GDP at $4.34 trillion this year and $4.47 trillion next year. Based on 2026 GDP figures, the current ranking stands as the United States, China, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and India.

India, however, is forecast to jump two spots to fourth place next year with a GDP of $4.52 trillion, while the UK is projected to reach $4.49 trillion and climb to fifth. Japan would then fall to sixth.

India is expected to reach $6.74 trillion by 2031, making it the world's third-largest economy behind only the US and China.

In the IMF's April projections, the UK had been expected to overtake Japan in 2029 — a timeline now pulled forward by two years. The shift reflects Japan's declining dollar-denominated income due to a weak yen, compounded by slowing economic growth.

Japan's average real annual growth rate over the 25 years through last year was just 0.7 percent — trailing not only emerging economies such as China at 8 percent and India at 6.3 percent, but also major advanced economies including the US at 2.1 percent, the UK at 1.6 percent and Germany at 1 percent.

Meanwhile, the IMF projected South Korea's nominal GDP will reach $2.25 trillion this year, surpassing the $2 trillion mark for the first time. The fund forecast further growth to $2.54 trillion in 2027, $2.68 trillion in 2028 and $2.81 trillion in 2029.