Oh's acquittal reshapes conservative power struggle — but will Han and Lee follow?

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's acquittal on appeal has complicated the calculus inside the conservative camp over who will next lead the People Power Party. With PPP Chairman Jang Dong-hyeok expected to seek a second term, attention has turned to whether Oh and independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon might join forces — and whether Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok could be brought into a broader conservative alliance. Observers caution, however, that the three figures hold divergent interests and political lines, leaving the prospect of a genuine coalition uncertain.

The stakes are high: the next party leader will wield nomination power over the 2028 general election, making the leadership race inseparable from the broader conservative struggle for dominance ahead of the 2030 presidential election. Within and outside the party, speculation centers on whether a national convention will be held shortly after the by-elections scheduled for next April, or around August, when Jang's current term expires.

Signs of possible cooperation between Oh and Han have emerged. Han said recently that he could work with those who share the goal of a conservative victory, a remark widely read as leaving the door open to Oh. Oh said he could envision working not only with Han but also with Jang, emphasizing the need for conservative unity. Both have signaled openness to cooperation, but neither has agreed to jointly back a single leadership candidate or form a common front.

Their differing bases and circumstances complicate any alliance. Whether Han can even compete directly at a party convention remains unclear, as the prospect of rejoining the PPP is uncertain. If a return proves difficult, observers say Han-aligned figures could run as proxies. Oh, as the sitting Seoul mayor, is also more likely to support friendly forces within the party than to run for party leader. Names floated as potential allies include lawmakers Kim Ki-hyeon, Yoon Sang-hyeon, Na Kyung-won and Ahn Cheol-soo, as well as former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min — though none has confirmed a candidacy or formal alliance.

The prospect of a conservative "big tent" that also encompasses Lee introduces further uncertainty. Former lawmaker Yoo and others have argued that Oh, Han, Lee and other conservative figures must unite to win the 2028 general election. Yet Lee has publicly distanced himself from any alliance with Han, and Han has pushed back openly, leaving mutual grievances and distrust intact on both sides.

Even if some form of an Oh-Han-Lee alignment were to materialize, analysts say it would more likely begin with cooperation on limited shared goals — such as checking the current administration or securing a general election victory — rather than coalescing immediately behind a single leadership candidate. Oh has spoken of a unity that includes Jang, but the antagonism between Jang and Han persists. Even among those who invoke conservative unity, there are clear differences over who should be included and on what terms.

The field of potential candidates remains fluid. If Jang seeks re-election as party leader, Oh and Han's camps could put forward proxy candidates or rally behind a neutral senior figure, while a group of senior lawmakers aligned against both Jang and Han could field an independent contender. Ultimately, the next PPP convention is expected to unfold as a contest shaped not only by the banner of conservative unity but by each faction's competing interests over the 2028 nomination power.