Democrats lead in 9 of 14 by-election races as 'mini general election' approaches

National Assembly by-elections will be held in 14 constituencies alongside the June 3 local elections, with the Democratic Party of Korea projecting leads in nine races and the People Power Party confident in two, political sources said Monday. The Democratic Party sees favorable conditions in Incheon Gyeyang-eul and Yeonsu-gap, Gyeonggi Province's Hanam-gap and Ansan-gap, South Chungcheong's Asan-eul, North Jeolla's Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap and -eul, Gwangju Gwangsan-eul, and Jeju Seogwipo.

The People Power Party, meanwhile, expects to hold Daegu Dalseong and Ulsan Nam-gap.

Both parties consider three constituencies genuine battlegrounds: Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul, Busan Buk-gap, and South Chungcheong's Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang.

The two most closely watched races are Pyeongtaek-eul, where a multi-candidate field has formed, and Busan Buk-gap.

The Pyeongtaek-eul by-election features a five-way contest among Democratic Party candidate Kim Yong-nam, People Power Party candidate Yoo Eui-dong, Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho Guk, Progressive Party candidate Kim Jae-yeon, and Freedom and Innovation candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn.

With so many candidates in the field, consolidation talks dominated the race from the outset on both the conservative and liberal sides — but no alliance materialized even after early voting closed.

Tensions between the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party have been particularly sharp in Pyeongtaek-eul. The Rebuilding Korea Party has relentlessly attacked Kim Yong-nam over various controversies and allegations since his strategic nomination by the Democratic Party. In the final stretch, the Democratic Party — which had largely stayed on the defensive — escalated its offensive at the party level, branding Cho Guk a "fake Democratic Party candidate."

Polls conducted before the blackout period began May 28 show Kim Yong-nam, Yoo Eui-dong and Cho Guk locked in a race within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. A telephone interview survey by Segye Ilbo and Gallup Korea conducted May 21-22 among 500 respondents put Kim at 30 percent, Cho at 25 percent, Yoo at 23 percent, Hwang at 8 percent and Kim Jae-yeon at 3 percent.

The Busan Buk-gap by-election is shaping up as a three-way race among Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo, People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik, and independent Han Dong-hoon. The seat opened after Democratic Party Busan mayoral candidate Jeon Jae-soo vacated it to run for mayor. The Democratic Party strategically nominated Ha, a former AI future planning senior secretary at the presidential office, while the People Power Party tapped Park, a two-term incumbent from the district.

Han Dong-hoon was expelled from the People Power Party under current party leader Jang Dong-hyeok and entered the Buk-gap race under the banner of conservative renewal. As in Pyeongtaek-eul, opposition-side consolidation was floated as a possibility, but both Park's and Han's camps rejected the idea, making it likely that both will run to the finish.

Pre-blackout polls show Ha and Han competing for the lead while Park trails. An automated response survey by Busan MBC and Hangil Research conducted May 24-25 among 505 respondents found Han at 38.6 percent and Ha at 36.7 percent — within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points — with Park at 20.5 percent. A Segye Ilbo-Gallup Korea telephone interview survey conducted May 21-22 among 502 respondents showed Han at 36 percent, Ha at 35 percent and Park at 19 percent, also within the plus or minus 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

In South Chungcheong's Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang, an automated response survey by Newsis and Ace Research conducted May 18-19 among 502 respondents — margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points — showed People Power Party candidate Yun Yong-geun at 42.4 percent and Democratic Party candidate Kim Yeong-bin at 38.8 percent.

Meanwhile, Ulsan Nam-gap — previously classified as a safe People Power Party seat — also showed an unexpectedly tight race in polls taken just before the blackout period. Full details on all surveys cited are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.