Digital asset futures trading 5.2 times spot volume as Bank of Korea warns of growing ties to traditional markets

The Bank of Korea has found that futures trading in the digital asset market has emerged as a new driver of price volatility. With arbitrage demand between spot and futures markets rising, high-leverage futures trading centered on offshore exchanges has amplified bitcoin price swings. The central bank also assessed that the digital asset market's connections to the stock and bond markets are broadening.

The Bank of Korea said Wednesday in its financial stability report that "new price-volatility factors have emerged in the digital asset market that differ from the past — including the introduction of US spot exchange-traded funds, the expansion of futures leverage, and growing holdings by digital asset treasury companies."

The central bank said digital asset prices have historically been influenced by global liquidity trends and bitcoin halving cycles.

From 2015 to 2026, the correlation coefficient between bitcoin prices and global liquidity stood at 0.33, below the Nasdaq's 0.47. During price downturns, however, the correlation between bitcoin and global liquidity rose to 0.62, approaching the Nasdaq's 0.59 — suggesting that bitcoin tends to move in line with other risk assets such as equities when liquidity contracts.

A notable development is the growing influence of the futures market. Over the past year, futures trading volume across five major exchanges — Binance, Bybit, OKX, HTX and Bitget — reached $551.1 trillion, roughly 5.2 times the spot trading volume of $106.6 trillion, according to the Bank of Korea.

The Bank of Korea noted that while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange limits bitcoin futures leverage to roughly four times, offshore exchanges such as Binance allow up to 150 times depending on position size. CME bitcoin futures are based on five bitcoin per contract, with margin requirements maintained at around 25 percent of total contract value — implying a maximum leverage of approximately four times.

Futures trading is outpacing spot markets not only on centralized exchanges but also on decentralized ones. As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, DeFiLlama data showed Perp DEX recorded a 24-hour trading volume of $22.33 billion — more than double the $10.57 billion in 24-hour ethereum spot trading volume on CoinMarketCap at the same time.

High-leverage futures trading can amplify price declines during downturns. When bitcoin prices fall, investors face margin shortfalls, triggering forced liquidations of futures positions that in turn push prices lower. The Bank of Korea said the expansion of high-leverage futures trading on offshore exchanges could set off this vicious cycle of price declines and forced liquidations.

The introduction of spot ETFs was also cited as a factor reshaping the virtual asset market structure. The launch of US bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024 drew in institutional capital and broadened the demand base. During price downturns, however, large-scale selling by institutional investors and herding driven by hedge fund algorithmic trading could amplify price declines, the Bank of Korea said.

Demand concentration among digital asset treasury companies was also flagged as a source of price volatility. Strategy currently holds 847,363 bitcoin. The Bank of Korea warned that if some DAT companies' market capitalization falls below the value of their digital asset holdings, they could face funding difficulties and be incentivized to sell. Strategy sold 32 bitcoin in May, a move the market assessed as adding downward price pressure at the time.

Linkages between the digital asset market and traditional financial markets are also strengthening. The Bank of Korea said co-movement between digital assets and equities intensified during periods of heightened volatility — including the spread of COVID-19 in 2020 and the global interest rate hikes of 2022 — and has remained higher than historical levels since the introduction of US spot ETFs in 2024.

The expansion of the stablecoin market is creating a transmission channel to the bond market. As major stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle increase their holdings of short-term US government bonds, stablecoin issuance and redemptions could begin to affect short-term interest rates. The Bank of Korea said that as the market grows following the legalization of won-denominated stablecoins, systematic monitoring of outstanding issuance, reserve asset composition and redemption flows will be necessary.

The impact on South Korea's domestic financial markets remains limited for now, as digital asset ETF trading is not permitted domestically and corporate participation in the market has been effectively blocked by convention. The Bank of Korea nonetheless noted that the correlation between bitcoin and the Kospi has recently been running at a relatively elevated level.

"Despite the restricted conditions in the domestic market, linkages with the stock market are gradually growing," a Bank of Korea official said. "This appears to reflect the global synchronization of risk assets."

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