South Korea's round-of-32 odds drop to 54% at 2026 World Cup

South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 North America World Cup have steadily fallen to around 54 percent.

Football statistics firm Opta on Friday put South Korea's probability of reaching the knockout stage at 54.45 percent, after Groups D, E and F completed their third and final group-stage matches. The team is managed by head coach Hong Myung-bo.

The round of 32 is open to the top two finishers from each group — 24 teams in total — along with the eight best third-place finishers across all groups.

Opta had placed South Korea's round-of-32 probability at 94 percent after the team beat the Czech Republic in their opening group match.

Back-to-back defeats against Mexico and South Africa in the second and third matches dropped South Korea to third place in Group A with three points, and their odds fell to around 87 percent.

Advancement for a third-place finisher involves a complex set of scenarios, as points tallies and goal differences vary depending on results across all groups.

South Korea had ranked fourth among all third-place finishers on Thursday, but slipped further down the standings as Groups D, E and F wrapped up their final matches.

Ecuador pulled off an upset in Group E, beating Germany 2-1 to finish with one win, one draw and one loss for four points, securing their place in the round of 32 and pushing South Korea's odds down to 73 percent.

Then Sweden drew 1-1 with Japan in Group F, also finishing with one win, one draw and one loss for four points, moving to the top of the third-place standings and dropping South Korea's probability further to 68 percent.

Adding to South Korea's troubles, Paraguay drew 0-0 with Australia in Group D, likewise finishing with one win, one draw and one loss for four points, moving ahead of South Korea in the third-place rankings.

South Korea, who had been fourth among third-place finishers, continued to slide and dropped to sixth.

Four third-place teams have now secured their spots in the round of 32: Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Paraguay.

South Korea's fate will be decided by the results of Groups G, H and I on Saturday and Groups J, K and L on Sunday.