'Human octopus' Sutton tips Japan to stun Brazil and reach last 16

A BBC football pundit known as the "human octopus" for his uncanny prediction record has forecast that Japan will pull off one of the tournament's biggest upsets at the 2026 North America World Cup — beating Brazil in the round of 32.

According to the BBC, commentator Chris Sutton predicted Japan would defeat Brazil 2-1 in their round-of-32 match, which kicks off at 2 a.m. Tuesday Korean Standard Time.

Japan advanced to the knockout stage as runners-up in Group F after going 1 win and 2 draws (5 points) in the group stage, and will face Group C winners Brazil at Houston Stadium in Texas.

Brazil, five-time World Cup champions and widely regarded as the world's strongest side, hold a commanding head-to-head record against Japan of 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. Both objective strength and historical record point to a Brazilian victory — yet Sutton boldly backed Japan.

"I have a feeling there could be an upset in this game. But it won't feel like an upset to me," Sutton said. "Japan are the dark horses of this tournament. I can't help but back that assessment in this match."

Sutton pointed to Japan's historic friendly win over Brazil in October last year — their first ever — as grounds for his prediction. "They'll beat Brazil again and knock them out of the World Cup," he said.

Sutton acknowledged, however, that Brazil remain a formidable force. "Either way, this game is going to be very exciting," he said. "Brazil could do well and win the whole thing, and if they do, that will be down to Carlo Ancelotti. He is an outstanding manager when it comes to building team organization."

Still, Sutton identified Brazil's midfield as a weakness, questioning whether their midfielders have "the work rate and mobility to cope with Japan's quick transitions and intense pressing," and ultimately predicted a 2-1 Japan win. BBC's AI, by contrast, forecast the opposite result — Brazil beating Japan 2-1.

Meanwhile, Sutton's prediction for South Korea's final group-stage match against South Africa on June 25 missed the mark. He had tipped South Korea to win 2-0, but the team lost 1-0 in a lackluster performance and were eliminated in the round of 32.

Sutton gained a reputation for accuracy after becoming the only BBC pundit to correctly call France's victory at the 2018 Russia World Cup, and for predicting South Korea's win over Portugal and Japan's win over Germany at the 2022 Qatar World Cup — achieving a hit rate of more than 50 percent. At this North America World Cup, he correctly called the outcome of 12 of 24 first-round matches and 14 of 24 second-round matches.