Trump's approval rating hits historic low — but don't expect a course change

"In fact, my approval rating is the highest it has ever been."

That is what Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform in June. But major polls released since then tell the opposite story. His approval rating has fallen into the low 30s — and in some surveys has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded for a re-elected president. Yet rather than adjusting course, Trump has pushed his existing agenda even harder.

The New York Times reported Saturday that while Trump's approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his presidency, no one should expect him to change direction.

Recent polls put Trump's approval rating at 34% in a CNN survey — matching his previous personal low recorded just after the Capitol riot in January 2021. A joint poll by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research put the figure at 33%, while a Quinnipiac University survey recorded 32%.

The Times assessed that, based on polling records dating to the 1940s, Trump now holds the lowest approval rating of any re-elected president at a comparable point in his term. The only president to have polled lower was Richard Nixon, who was on the verge of resigning over the Watergate scandal.

The contrast with past presidents is stark. According to Gallup, Bill Clinton's approval rating stood at 64% at a comparable point in his second term, Ronald Reagan's at 61% and Dwight Eisenhower's at 58%. Even Barack Obama, who struggled in the polls, held 43%.

The sharpest drivers of the decline are the military confrontation with Iran and rising global oil prices. The Times noted that it is extremely rare in American history for opposition to a war to outpace support from the very start, adding that public opposition to the Iran war currently runs at roughly twice the level of support.

Anxiety is also growing within the Republican Party as Trump's numbers slip in areas once considered his strengths — the economy, prices and immigration. With the midterm elections just three months away in November, some Republicans worry the party could lose not only the House but the Senate to the Democrats.

Under normal circumstances, approval ratings this low would prompt the White House to try to reverse the mood through policy adjustments or staff changes. Trump, however, has done the opposite — expanding his tariff policy and maintaining a hard line on Iran while staying firmly on his existing course.

Analysts say the reason lies in Trump's conviction in his own political formula rather than in polling numbers. At the G7 summit, Trump said "polls are as dishonest as journalists." He later posted on Truth Social that his approval rating was "in fact the highest ever," claiming one commissioned survey showed 50% and another showed more than 65% — without providing any supporting evidence.

Republican strategist Douglas Heye told the Times: "He will always try to project strength regardless of the numbers and will claim the polls are rigged. The strategy itself will not change."

The Times noted that Trump has never won a majority of the popular vote across his three presidential runs and has rarely seen his approval rating exceed 50% while in office, yet has maintained a grip on the Republican Party by rallying his core MAGA — Make America Great Again — base.

Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson said that in today's deeply polarized political environment, approval ratings do not shift as dramatically as they once did. Still, she cautioned that numbers in the low 30s may not just signal the loss of swing voters — they could be a sign that parts of his existing base are beginning to peel away.

The Times concluded, however, that unlike past presidents who adjusted policy in response to falling approval ratings, Trump trusts his own political instincts and his core supporters more than the polls, making it unlikely he will change course this time either.