Iran senses 'TACO' pattern, raises bar for Strait of Hormuz deal

Iran has raised the bar for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, presenting the United States with six preconditions after recently concluding consultations with Oman on the issue. Analysts say Tehran has detected a "TACO" pattern — shorthand for "Trump Always Chickens Out" — in President Donald Trump's repeated cycle of threatening airstrikes against Iran only to pull back, and is pressing its advantage accordingly. Iran appears to have concluded that Washington is looking for an exit from the war and is using the strait as leverage to extract maximum concessions.

According to Reuters and other international media, Iran's six preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are: lifting the US maritime blockade, withdrawing US forces from the surrounding region, compensating Iran for damage caused by US airstrikes carried out since last month, releasing frozen Iranian funds, fully lifting all sanctions against Iran, and halting attacks on Iran's allied forces. The unconditional release of frozen funds and other demands go beyond what the two countries agreed to in the end-of-war MOU signed in June.

Iran's six conditions broadly mirror the contents of the MOU the two countries concluded in June. However, analysts say Tehran has effectively raised the negotiating threshold by demanding that Washington implement these measures in advance — or simultaneously with any Iranian concession on the strait.

CNN reported Sunday that Iran hardened its negotiating position because it believes it holds the upper hand in talks with the United States.

A key factor behind Iran's tougher stance is what it perceives as a US vulnerability: American military operations against Iran have rapidly depleted stockpiles of the Patriot missile system, a cornerstone of US air defense.

The New York Times reported that US Patriot missile inventories have fallen below 1,700 units as a result of military operations targeting Iran. The paper also said rebuilding stockpiles to pre-Middle East war levels could take more than two years.

CNN also reported Tuesday, citing multiple sources familiar with US military ammunition inventories, that stockpiles of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor missiles have dropped to about 20 percent of total capacity. Senior US military officials have been issuing repeated internal warnings that current weapons inventories have fallen to dangerous levels, CNN added.

Trump's repeated warnings of large-scale military strikes against Iran — none of which materialized — are also seen as a factor shaping Tehran's calculus. Iran appears to have concluded that Trump's threats amount to TACO and no longer carry credible weight.

The New York Times said Iran's leadership is holding firm against Trump's threats because it believes it has found "the world's Achilles' heel."

With Iran refusing to budge and instead raising its demands, analysts say reaching a ceasefire agreement has become even harder. James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO, said Iran's new demands are "narrowing the options for the Trump administration," adding that Tehran "appears to be overplaying its hand, with hardliners in control. The likelihood of a near-term deal is diminishing."

Direct negotiations between the United States and Iran have in effect stalled. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in Tehran that he was not in talks with the United States. He added that messages are being exchanged through intermediaries, but said "there is no prospect of negotiations resuming until the US stops violating the MOU and compensates for those violations."

Analysts also noted that before the war, Iran did not wield influence over the Strait of Hormuz at its current level, but that control of the strait has emerged through the conflict as a "red line" as significant as the nuclear issue.

As the cycle of armed conflict followed by dialogue has repeated itself in US-Iran relations, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply. CNN reported that over the past week, an average of only about 12 ships per day passed through the strait — roughly one-tenth of normal peacetime traffic.