US faces potential defeat against China due to interceptor missile shortage, think tank warns

A US think tank has warned that a sharp decline in American interceptor missile stockpiles — depleted by the war with Iran — could lead to a strategic defeat if conflict breaks out with China.

According to the Heritage Foundation, senior research fellow Jim Payne published a report on the foundation's website Aug. 4 titled "Theater Missile Defense Inventory: Insufficient for a US-China Conflict." The report warned that without adequate interceptor stockpiles, US forces would likely be unable to sustain the offensive operations needed to degrade an adversary's strike and reconstitution capabilities. "If the interceptor stockpile shortage remains serious, it will likely lead to operational failure and result in a strategic defeat for the United States, causing long-term damage to US military and economic interests," it said.

The report further assessed that in contingency planning against China, interceptor missile inventories are not a supporting detail but a core factor that "allows joint forces to survive long enough to win."

The Heritage Foundation is the conservative think tank that published "Project 2025," a policy blueprint compiled ahead of the 2024 presidential election with Donald Trump's return to power in mind. That even this flagship conservative institution is sounding the alarm over the severity of the interceptor shortage has drawn considerable attention.

While US media outlets have previously reported on the military's interceptor shortfall, this report is notable for framing the problem specifically around a potential future military clash between the United States and China.

The report found that US stockpiles of interceptors — including the Patriot, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, and the SM-6 and SM-3 naval missiles — amount to less than 10 percent of the total needed to deter, or if necessary win, a prolonged, high-intensity conflict with China.

"At current inventory levels, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could neutralize key US military installations such as Andersen Air Force Base on Guam within days of a conflict's onset," the report said, adding that if China used only a small fraction of its missile stockpile to target US bases, American forces could exhaust their interceptors within days of the conflict beginning.

The report also noted that at the current pace of US interceptor production, reaching recommended inventory targets would take roughly 29 to 89 years. It further cited former Indo-Pacific Command commander Adm. Phil Davidson's warning that a US-China conflict could erupt by 2027, adding that expanding America's capacity to produce new missiles would itself take years.

The report recommended that the "most prudent course of action to reduce serious and lasting damage to US military and economic interests" involves four steps: procuring interceptors immediately, pre-authorizing rules of engagement that would permit strikes on the Chinese mainland in the event of conflict, expanding production capacity for more interceptor missiles, and preparing to make difficult operational decisions.

More specifically, the report called for setting ammunition inventory targets based on projected demand in a worst-case scenario of a prolonged, high-intensity conflict with China, and for destroying Chinese missiles before they are launched — including in the early stages of any conflict.

It also recommended identifying the most effective deployment of naval assets to supplement ground-based interceptors without compromising offensive firepower.

The report additionally called for a fundamental restructuring of the ammunition industrial base — centered on production rates and capacity — through dedicated ammunition procurement accounts and incentive programs, including subsidies and tax benefits.

The Defense Department also appears to have recognized the interceptor shortage and begun preparing for it. An analysis of the US Army's fiscal year 2027 budget request by Fox News found that the military sought funding to procure 2,798 PAC-3 MSE missiles — the highest-performance variant of the Patriot — and 857 THAAD interceptors. That represents a sharp increase from the fiscal year 2026 budget request, which sought funding for 320 PAC-3 MSE missiles and 25 THAAD interceptors.