Lee's approval rating hits post-inauguration low of 44%, with negatives overtaking positives for first time: Gallup Korea

President Lee Jae Myung's job approval rating has fallen to 44 percent, according to a Gallup Korea poll released Friday. The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday among 1,000 registered voters aged 18 and older nationwide, found that 44 percent gave a positive assessment of Lee's job performance, while 46 percent gave a negative one. Ten percent withheld judgment.

The result marks the lowest approval rating recorded for Lee since he took office, and the first time in Gallup Korea polling that his disapproval has overtaken his approval. His rating peaked at 67 percent in March before shedding more than 20 percentage points over five months, crossing into negative territory — a so-called "dead cross."

Compared with the previous survey, conducted July 21 to 23, the positive rating dropped 7 percentage points while the negative rating rose 8 points. It is the first time the two figures have inverted.

The pace of decline has been accelerating. Lee entered the 60-percent range in the second week of February at 63 percent, then reached a post-inauguration high of 67 percent in the third week of March. By the second week of June the figure had slipped to 57 percent, a drop of 10 points in three months. In the two months since, it has fallen a further 13 points to 44 percent. The support base that held steady in the early months of his administration has been eroding rapidly since the end of the second quarter.

Compared with previous presidents, Lee's dead cross came 14 months into his term — somewhat earlier than former President Moon Jae-in, at 19 months, and former President Park Geun-hye, at 16 months. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, however, saw his ratings invert just two months after taking office. Moon's crossover came in the third week of December 2018, when his approval stood at 45 percent against 46 percent disapproval, driven by deepening economic pessimism. Park's came in the third week of June 2014, at 43 percent versus 48 percent, amid controversy over a prime minister appointment. Yoon's inversion occurred in the first week of July 2022, at 37 percent versus 49 percent, following a NATO summit trip and disputes over ministerial appointments.

The reasons cited for negative assessments are also notable. "Flawed elections and National Election Commission issues," which topped the disapproval list in the June survey at 16 percent, has all but disappeared from the top responses this time. In its place, "real estate policy" surged more than threefold — from 9 percent to 30 percent — to claim the top spot. The shift suggests that real estate has moved from being one grievance among many to a central variable driving the decline in Lee's approval.

"Reducing prosecutors' authority" (5 percent) and "national defense and security" (4 percent) newly entered the top responses, while "authoritarianism and unilateral decision-making" held roughly steady at 5 percent, down from 6 percent in June. The overall picture has shifted: concerns over election administration have receded, and real estate and bread-and-butter issues are now driving negative public opinion.

On the positive side, "diplomacy" rose to first place at 19 percent. "Economy and livelihoods," which led in the June survey at 21 percent, slipped to 15 percent and fell to second. While foreign policy achievements appear to be serving as a floor for Lee's approval, some say his ratings are being sustained by diplomacy alone — given that the real estate and economic issues eating into his support remain unresolved.

Support among Democratic Party of Korea backers (79 percent positive) and self-identified progressives (70 percent positive) remained solid, but disapproval among People Power Party supporters (84 percent) and conservatives (74 percent) was equally firm, pointing to deepening polarization between the two camps.

The more telling signal lies among swing voters. Among those who identify as centrists, approval and disapproval were nearly even at 43 percent and 45 percent, respectively. Among those with no party affiliation, disapproval (55 percent) more than doubled approval (25 percent). Analysts say the inversion is largely attributable to this group turning away — a sign that voters without strong partisan leanings have begun to distance themselves from the president.

By age group, those in their 40s and 50s maintained relatively high approval ratings in the mid-to-upper 50 percent range, while those in their 20s recorded the lowest approval of any age group at 30 percent. Analysts attribute the low figure among younger voters to that generation's heightened sensitivity to real estate and asset-building issues.

With Lee's approval falling into negative territory for the first time since he took office, observers say his administration will need a more fundamental and proactive response to bread-and-butter issues — particularly real estate policy — to sustain governing momentum in the second half of his term.

The survey was conducted using random-digit dialing of virtual mobile phone numbers provided by the three major wireless carriers. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, and the response rate was 9.7 percent. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.