Typhoon Saudel strengthens and heads north as peninsula watches closely

As a string of earlier typhoons passed by without affecting the Korean Peninsula, Typhoon Saudel — the 18th named storm of the season — is intensifying and moving northward. Its track remains uncertain, but attention is growing over whether the storm could affect the peninsula as it is expected to advance toward waters near Japan's Okinawa.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, as of 9 a.m. Friday, Saudel was moving northwest at 15 kilometers per hour in waters roughly 490 kilometers east-northeast of Guam. The storm had a central pressure of 985 hectopascals, maximum sustained winds of 27 meters per second (97 kilometers per hour) and a strong-wind radius of 300 kilometers, placing it at intensity level 2.

Saudel is forecast to strengthen rapidly as it passes over warm ocean waters. By 9 a.m. Saturday, it is expected to develop into an intensity-level-3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 39 meters per second in waters north-northeast of Guam.

The storm is forecast to intensify further from Saturday night, developing into an intensity-level-4 typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 49 meters per second on Sunday and Monday. By 9 a.m. Monday, it is expected to have advanced to waters east-southeast of Okinawa.

If current forecasts hold, Saudel will track northwest along waters south of Japan and approach the vicinity of Okinawa in the early-to-middle part of next week. However, it is too early to conclude that the storm will make landfall on the Korean Peninsula or directly affect it.

Atmospheric circulation patterns around East Asia are complex, and the strength and position of the North Pacific high-pressure system — which largely determines a typhoon's track — are difficult to predict with precision.

Meteorological agencies in the United States, Japan and South Korea all project the typhoon will reach the Okinawa area in the early-to-middle part of next week. But the track beyond that point remains highly uncertain.

South Korea's Korean Integrated Model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model both suggest the storm could veer toward China, while ensemble forecasts from the US Global Forecast System show a range of possible tracks — including eastern China, Japan and the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula's west coast.

Even if Saudel does not directly affect South Korea, its track could intensify a late-summer heat wave or bring rainfall to some areas as rain clouds develop ahead of the storm.

The administration said that because the typhoon is still in its early stages, a clearer picture of its track is expected to emerge around the middle of next week, as Saudel approaches the Okinawa area.

The name Saudel was submitted by Micronesia and means "the legendary chief's bodyguard."