By 2060, recycling China's solar panel waste could yield up to $935b

Solar panels installed on warehouse rooftops and apartment balconies have a lifespan of 25 to 30 years — meaning panels put in place during the 2010s will begin reaching end-of-life en masse starting in the 2030s.

A new analysis projects that cumulative end-of-life solar panels worldwide could reach as much as 402 million tons by 2060. Annual waste currently stands at around 20,000 tons, but by 2060 that figure is expected to surpass 19 million tons in a single year.

A research team led by Li Jiasuo at China's Shandong University published the findings in the international journal Nature.

The research team divided the world into 32 zones and ran 1,708 scenarios by combining variables including material prices, installation outlooks, recycling technology, cross-border trade flows and subsidy structures.

Total accumulated end-of-life solar panel waste was estimated at between 297 million and 402 million tons by 2060 — meaning cumulative volumes between 2030 and 2060 would swell to 150 to 200 times current levels.

The team projected that 15 EU member states would generate the most solar panel waste from 2020 through 2040. By 2060, China is expected to account for 112.8 million to 160.5 million tons — representing 36.2 to 39.9 percent of the global total — making it the single largest source of solar waste.

Solar panels contain heavy metals such as lead and cadmium that can leach into soil and groundwater if landfilled. Recycling them offers economic benefits by recovering materials including silicon, silver, copper and tellurium.

However, the research team flagged concerns about the economic viability of recycling, noting that even accounting for technological advances, recycling revenues would not exceed costs for more than a decade.

The team also examined how different subsidy designs would affect outcomes during the more-than-10-year period before solar panel recycling becomes profitable.

The most effective approach was a front-loaded subsidy that gradually phases out as recycling operations begin turning a profit.

Under that model, the per-ton net profit gap between regions narrowed from $1,147 to $1,061 without subsidies. The total subsidy required through 2060 would be between $400 million and $1.9 billion.

By comparison, maintaining subsidies continuously through 2060 would require $16 billion — roughly nine times as much.

A carbon-reduction-based subsidy model widened the gap in more than 85 percent of scenarios, the team found, with the per-ton disparity growing to between $1,198 and $1,434.

The cause lies in how the subsidy is structured: regions where recycling costs more receive larger payouts.

Canada and Europe would receive $63.1 to $158 per ton of carbon dioxide reduced, while China and South Korea — where recycling costs are lower — would receive only $7.5 to $89, even though they reduce the same amount of carbon.

If waste is processed locally in the regions where it is generated — with priority given to greenhouse gas reduction — cumulative economic gains through 2060 would reach $670.8 billion, while greenhouse gas emissions would be cut by 2.44 billion tons, the team said.

If waste is instead consolidated and processed in regions with more advanced recycling technology, lower processing costs would push cumulative net profits to as much as $935.5 billion by 2060, with greenhouse gas reductions reaching 3.32 billion tons.

The team noted, however, that refurbishing and reusing solar panels remains a secondary option, as panel performance varies widely and consumer confidence in the durability of secondhand units remains low.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10905-w

Wang, C., Zuo, J., Chen, X. et al. Towards an equitable future of global photovoltaic waste recycling. Nature (2026).