'Only bad options left for Putin,' warns intelligence chief of Russia's neighbor

The head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service has warned that if change comes to Russia's political system, it will happen overnight.

Kaupo Rosin, director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), told the British newspaper The Telegraph on Saturday that Vladimir Putin "only has bad options left."

"If something changes in Russia, it will happen in a radical way and we will all be surprised," Rosin said. "If it happens, it will be overnight."

He said he was uncertain whether those around Putin were convinced Russia would prevail. "There are clearly voices saying we need to keep going, but the voices urging a reassessment of the situation are growing stronger," he said.

Estonia, one of the three Baltic states, has a population of about 1.3 million. It joined NATO after gaining independence from the Soviet Union and has earned Western trust in intelligence on Russia. Richard Moore, the former head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), publicly praised EFIS as "excellent" in 2022.

Rosin said fiscal pressures on Russia were already enormous. "The fiscal deficit this year has already exceeded projections and, by our estimates, could reach half of Russia's defense budget," he said.

However, he said he did not expect street uprisings at this point. "What matters more is what those with access to money, weapons and information are thinking," he said.

Earlier, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow on Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal was first to report that Ratcliffe delivered a warning to Russia not to attack NATO member states.

The CIA director's visit to Moscow was the first since William Burns, then the agency's director, traveled there in 2021 to warn Putin against invading Ukraine. Russia launched the invasion three months later, in February 2022.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that US intelligence had assessed the possibility of Putin ordering limited attacks within the next few years, with options ranging from cyberattacks to small-scale incursions, most likely targeting the Baltic states.

NATO's eastern flank countries are accelerating military buildups. Poland took delivery of 28 South Korean-made K2 Black Panther tanks on Tuesday. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said the tanks had arrived in Poland and would be assigned to the 16th Mechanized Division, which is stationed near Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave.

The delivery is the first batch under a second contract signed in August last year. Poland has ordered 360 K2 tanks as of this month. Starting in 2028, 64 K2PL units incorporating locally made components will be delivered in stages.