Zelensky says Putin may ease tensions to give Trump a pre-midterm diplomatic win

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Vladimir Putin may offer Donald Trump a diplomatic win in the form of de-escalation ahead of the US midterm elections in November — a forecast that appears to reflect the hopes of a country worn down by more than four years of war with Russia.

Speaking in an interview with the online outlet Axios on Monday (local time), Zelensky said "yes" when asked whether he believed Putin might want to hand Trump a diplomatic achievement before the midterms. Trump had showcased his diplomatic credentials through Gaza ceasefire mediation last year, but this year he finds himself in a more difficult position: three-way talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war have stalled, and the conflict with Iran has dragged on, leaving him with little to show on the foreign policy front. Against that backdrop, the thinking goes, Putin could move to ease tensions in Ukraine as a way of bolstering Trump's diplomatic standing.

The assessment carries a note of wishful thinking from a country that has been at war for more than four years. Zelensky, who recently met Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Kyiv, said the United States is currently exploring winter de-escalation measures between Ukraine and Russia while also seeking to restart negotiations toward a comprehensive peace deal.

Zelensky said Putin has previously used the harsh winter months to intensify attacks on Ukraine, but predicted he would not want to antagonize Trump ahead of the midterms. Last year, Russia carried out sustained strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during winter, leaving Ukrainian civilians without heat in temperatures as low as minus 40 degrees Celsius. Trump had urged Russia to refrain from attacking energy facilities during the coldest months.

"Putin needs Trump and does not want to irritate him," Zelensky said, adding that even if Putin had no desire to de-escalate, pressure from the Trump administration could still force a change in his posture.

Zelensky said there was an urgent need to focus on restarting negotiations this month and next, and expressed his desire to meet with US officials during the high-level week of the UN General Assembly, which opens in New York on Sept. 22.

If fighting between Russia and Ukraine does ease as Zelensky anticipates and a window for dialogue opens, Trump — who is already grappling with the intractable conflict with Iran — could gain a diplomatic achievement to point to heading into the midterms.