South Korea must cut 149 million more tons of greenhouse gases by 2030 to meet NDC target

South Korea's greenhouse gas emissions fell by 6.1 million tons last year from the previous year, driven by a growing share of renewable energy, but the country must cut an additional 149 million tons by 2030 to meet its nationally determined contribution target.

The Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center, under the Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy, announced Sunday that its preliminary estimate of national greenhouse gas emissions for 2025 put total emissions at 685.71 million tons — a decrease of 6.1 million tons from the 2024 provisional total.

By sector, emissions fell from the previous year in industry, transport, agriculture and fisheries, and waste, while they rose in power generation, buildings and refrigerants.

Power sector emissions edged up 0.2 percent from the previous year to 220.43 million tons. Total power generation was roughly flat, and while output from renewable sources rose sharply, nuclear generation declined and coal-fired generation increased. Officials attributed the coal increase to a rise in planned maintenance and outage days at nuclear plants, which required greater reliance on coal to maintain supply stability.

Industrial sector emissions fell 2.1 percent year on year to 242.93 million tons, a steeper decline than the previous year. The main driver was reduced output in high-emission industries including steel, petrochemicals and non-metallic minerals such as cement. The semiconductor industry, despite increased production activity, managed to contain emissions growth through improvements in process-level reduction efficiency.

Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases — including hydrofluorocarbons used as refrigerants in cooling and air-conditioning equipment — rose 3.9 percent year on year to 36.28 million tons.

The increase was attributed to higher refrigerant consumption driven by recent extreme heat events and the growth of the cold-chain logistics industry. Because refrigerants leak gradually over the lifespan of equipment, the accumulated volume of refrigerants injected in prior years continued to push up current emissions.

However, the rate of increase moderated from the previous year's 4.5 percent, reflecting phased reduction measures being implemented under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

Building sector emissions rose 3.3 percent year on year to 45 million tons, driven by higher city gas consumption as heating degree days increased.

According to the International Energy Agency, abnormally cold temperatures affected advanced economies in 2025, pushing up heating energy demand in major countries. Electricity consumption in the building sector also rose 1.6 percent year on year as the spread of air-conditioning units and the electrification of heating continued.

Transport sector emissions fell 2.9 percent year on year to 94.59 million tons, a larger decline than the previous year. The drop was driven by a sharp decrease in diesel consumption as zero-emission vehicles — including battery electric and hydrogen fuel-cell cars — and hybrid vehicles became more widespread. Gasoline consumption edged up slightly over the same period due to growth in hybrid vehicles, though per-vehicle gasoline use declined.

Agriculture and fisheries sector emissions fell 3.1 percent year on year to 25.25 million tons, as the area under rice cultivation shrank 2.9 percent. Waste sector emissions declined 1.8 percent year on year to 18.05 million tons, reflecting a continued decrease in the volume of waste sent to landfill.

Carbon absorption by forests and land — which offsets gross emissions — fell 22.8 percent year on year to 31.03 million tons. The decline was attributed to a rise in biomass combustion emissions of 8.3 million tons resulting from the North Gyeongsang Province wildfires in March last year, which damaged a key carbon sink.

As a result, net emissions — gross emissions minus forest and land absorption — rose by 3.1 million tons from the 2024 provisional figure to 654.7 million tons.

Compared with 2018 levels, 2025 emissions were down 84 million tons.

To meet the 2030 nationally determined contribution target, South Korea must reduce emissions by an additional 149 million tons by 2030.

Meeting the 2035 NDC will require further cuts of between approximately 127 million and 182 million tons between 2031 and 2035, underscoring the need to sharply accelerate sector-by-sector emissions reduction efforts in the years ahead.

In response, the government said it will mobilize all available capacity in the power sector to meet rising electricity demand, aiming to achieve the target of 100 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030 ahead of schedule while also advancing a roadmap for phasing out coal-fired power generation.

Financing for the green and low-carbon transition of industry will expand from 8.7 trillion won ($6.3 billion) this year to 10.6 trillion won to accelerate the shift.

The government also plans to announce within the year a green transformation strategy — known as K-GX — to concentrate support for the development of key decarbonization technologies in high-emission industries including steel, petrochemicals and cement, with the aim of restructuring them into high-value, low-carbon sectors.

In the transport sector, the government plans to allocate a record budget for electric vehicle subsidies next year, raising the number of subsidized EV units from 300,000 this year to 430,000, while continuing to promote high-performance electric vehicles and affordable charging infrastructure. The target is for electric vehicles to account for 50 percent of new car sales by 2030.

The government will also push to electrify delivery motorcycles to reduce noise and exhaust emissions in residential areas, and will pursue electrification in off-road sectors including agricultural machinery, construction equipment and vessels.

In the building sector, the government will promote heat pumps and renewable heat supply to advance heating decarbonization. In the waste sector, it will accelerate its plastics-reduction agenda — including mainstreaming recycled materials, expanding reusable container culture and introducing eco-design standards — building on the plan announced in April. Additional measures will include strengthening full-lifecycle refrigerant management and expanding carbon absorption capacity in the agriculture and fisheries sector.

Beyond government-led campaigns, the authorities plan to operate a standing platform for citizens to declare, act on and track their climate commitments, fostering a culture of everyday climate action. The existing carbon-neutrality points scheme will be rebranded as a "climate action points" program, making individuals' records of green behavior visible as tangible reward credentials.

Choi Min-ji, director of the Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center, said last year's results had laid the groundwork for accelerating renewable-energy-led decarbonization toward the 2030 NDC target. "The government, in coordination with relevant ministries, will advance the Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth National Strategy and the Second National Basic Plan — which set sector-specific and year-by-year targets for the 2035 NDC — while strengthening annual implementation reviews," she said.