43% of voters say they'll cast ballots to rebuke Trump — highest since 1998, NBC poll shows

With November's midterm elections approaching, 43 percent of registered voters say they plan to cast their ballots to express opposition to President Donald Trump, according to a new NBC News poll — the highest figure recorded in the network's midterm surveys since 1998. Negative sentiment over Trump's economic policies and the war with Iran appears to be pushing the midterms toward a referendum on his presidency.

The NBC poll, conducted Sunday (local time) among 1,000 registered voters, asked whether respondents planned to vote to express support or opposition to the president. Forty-three percent said they would vote to signal opposition, while only 27 percent said they would vote to express support.

Midterm elections, held at the midpoint of a president's four-year term, fill roughly one-third of Senate seats and all House seats, and are widely seen as a referendum on the sitting president.

The 43 percent anti-Trump figure is the highest recorded since NBC began asking the question in 1998. During the Biden administration's midterms in 2022, 35 percent said they would vote against the president, and the figure stood at 38 percent during Trump's first-term midterms in 2018.

In earlier surveys, the share voting against the incumbent was 23 percent during Bill Clinton's second term in 1998, 19 percent during George W. Bush's first term in 2002, and 37 percent during Bush's second term in 2006. Under Barack Obama, the figures were 34 percent in 2010 and 32 percent in 2014.

Particularly notable, nearly half of independent voters said they view their vote as a signal of opposition to the president — the highest level NBC has recorded in its pre-midterm polling over the past 30 years.

By contrast, the share saying they would vote to support Trump stood at 27 percent, down 4 percentage points from 31 percent during his first term. Anti-incumbent sentiment has grown stronger while enthusiasm among his base has weakened.

Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates, said Trump "has achieved his goal of making this election about himself at a historic level."

Disappointment with Trump's economic policies appears to be a major driver of his low approval ratings. His job disapproval reached 56 percent — drawn from most Democrats and independents, as well as 16 percent of Republicans. Only 25 percent said they strongly approved of his performance.

Fifty-five percent of respondents said the Trump administration's policies had been harmful to the US economy, more than double the 26 percent who said they had been beneficial.

The war with Iran is also weighing on Republicans. Fifty-seven percent said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the war, while only 24 percent said they were more likely to do so.

Trump's recently announced cash-payment campaign pledge has also failed to generate enthusiasm. He promised to give $5,000 to each adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms. But only 21 percent said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the policy, while 46 percent said they would be less likely.

Trump's sustained attacks on mail-in voting appear to be reshaping how Democratic voters plan to cast their ballots.

Among Democratic voters, 23 percent said they plan to vote by mail — down 11 percentage points from the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, the share planning to use early voting locations before Election Day rose from 30 percent to 36 percent.

Among Republican voters, 16 percent said they would vote by mail, 26 percent said they would use early voting, and 53 percent said they would vote in person on Election Day — largely unchanged from the 2024 presidential election.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 11 to 15 through telephone interviews and online surveys via text message among 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.