'Worst rental market in 25 years' coming — why this expert tells young Koreans to buy now [Herald Money Festa 2026]

'Jeonse crunch drives all-in buying' — start trading up from apartments under 1 billion won here | Ppasong Kim Hak-ryul

Kim Hak-ryul, head of SmartTube Real Estate Research Institute and widely known by his nickname "Ppasong," laid out a homebuying strategy for Koreans in their 20s and 30s in an interview with The Herald Business. Rather than waiting to accumulate enough seed money to enter Seoul's prime neighborhoods, he advised young buyers to purchase what they can afford now and trade up to better locations over time.

Kim is set to present his outlook for the 2027 real estate market at Herald Money Festa 2026, running Oct. 2-3, under the theme "Will home prices rise or fall next year?"

Kim said young buyers should not let an insistence on Seoul cause them to miss the window for homeownership altogether. "If you don't have the money, you don't have to go for Seoul," he said. "If it's a transit-oriented area in Gyeonggi Province or Incheon with a commutable distance to Seoul's major job centers, I'd recommend buying something as close to a new apartment as possible."

He also urged buyers not to shy away from taking out loans. "Don't think about avoiding debt — use it," he said. "Get help from your parents and mobilize every financial resource at your disposal to get started." He cautioned, however, that buyers should avoid multi-family homes, villas and properties outside transit-oriented areas, which tend to be harder to sell.

After buying a first home, Kim said, buyers should move aggressively to trade up. "You have to move after two years. If you don't, you get complacent," he said, adding that young people need to be willing to live through the inconvenience of frequent moves. He called this a "stepping-stone strategy." "If you only try to pick the best option, you'll miss everything," he said. "Start small and keep upgrading — that's how your assets snowball."

For a first entry point, he specifically named Bucheon, Gimpo, Goyang's Deogyang-gu, Uijeongbu and Namyangju. These areas fall outside regulated zones, making it relatively easier to use mortgage financing, and they are connected to Seoul's major business districts by rail. From there, he outlined a trade-up path through Samsong and Wonheung before eventually moving into Seoul neighborhoods such as Eunpyeong-gu, Seodaemun-gu and Mapo-gu.

For next year's sales market, Kim said Gyeonggi Province and Incheon deserve more attention than Seoul. "I expect the decline in Seoul's top-tier areas to stop and the market to hold roughly flat," he said. "Buyers who cannot meet their housing needs in Seoul may move to Gyeonggi Province or Incheon due to high home prices and the burden of mortgage debt."

He also flagged a supply shortage as a key market variable. "There's nothing this year, nothing next year, nothing the year after," he said, forecasting that the supply gap will persist through 2030. Because new housing supply takes time to materialize, he argued that existing homes for sale and for rent must be allowed to trade freely in the market.

Kim said he is more worried about next year's rental market than the sales market. "In 25 years of working in real estate research, this looks like it could be the worst rental market I've ever seen," he said. "The jeonse and monthly rent market could become far more serious than the sales market."

He also diagnosed a growing phenomenon of "forced buying," in which tenants who cannot find jeonse or monthly rent listings are compelled to purchase homes against their will. "They're not buying because the investment makes sense — they're buying because there's no rental available and they have no other choice," Kim said. "Unless policy changes, this trend could worsen further into next year."

Herald Money Festa 2026 will be held at Dongdaemun Design Plaza in Seoul on Oct. 2-3, where Kim will address the 2027 home price outlook, shifts in the supply and rental markets, and homebuying strategies for buyers in their 20s and 30s in greater detail.