'Zubjub' apartment subscription market mirrors Seoul-area price divide

As apartment prices across the Greater Seoul area diverge based on transit access and proximity to workplaces, a similar divide is emerging in the so-called "zubjub" market — unranked and discretionary apartment subscriptions. While some parts of Gyeonggi Province are seeing units go unfilled, areas such as Yongin's Suji-gu and Suwon, where prices have continued to rise, are posting double-digit competition rates even for larger unit types.

According to the Korea Real Estate Board's subscription portal on Wednesday, 135 applicants applied for 229 units of the 59-square-meter type in the unranked subscription for Doosan We've the Zenith Bucheon in Bucheon, Gyeonggi Province. That amounted to roughly 59 percent of available units, leaving 94 units unfilled.

The discretionary supply at Icheon Jungni District B3 Block Geumseong Baekjo Yemiji in Icheon told a similar story. Seven applicants competed for three units of the 59-square-meter type, but the more plentiful 84-square-meter type — offered in A, B and C configurations — drew fewer applicants than units available across all three configurations. The 84-square-meter A type, with the largest supply at 23 units, received just seven applications.

Complexes that struggled in first- and second-priority subscriptions fared no better in the unranked round. Osan Heritage Xi 1 Complex in Osan, Gyeonggi Province, averaged a 0.47-to-1 competition rate in its general subscription. The subsequent unranked subscription drew 25 applications for 36 units of the 75-square-meter type and 78 applications for 220 units of the 84-square-meter A type.

Unranked subscriptions are held to fill units that went uncontracted in the general subscription due to withdrawals or disqualified winners. Discretionary supply targets units that remained unsold after failing to attract sufficient competition. Both processes require no housing subscription account and proceed entirely by random lottery.

Because pre-sale prices, surrounding market prices and expectations of future price gains all factor into subscription demand, the widening price gap across the Greater Seoul area is now showing up in competition rates for leftover units as well. Buyers are increasingly weighing location rather than simply applying on the chance of a windfall.

Local price trends closely mirror subscription results. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, apartment sale prices in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, fell 5.1 percent this year as of Sept. 14. Bucheon's Sosa-gu rose just 1.79 percent and Osan 0.77 percent — both well below the Greater Seoul average of 5.24 percent.

In areas where apartment prices have surged on the back of Seoul accessibility and strong live-work demand, leftover-unit subscriptions have drawn fierce competition. Suji Xi Edition in Yongin's Suji-gu posted double-digit competition rates even for large units, which typically attract more limited demand. Six units of the 120-square-meter type, priced at 2.098 billion won to 2.198 billion won, drew 92 applicants — a competition rate of 15.33 to 1.

Apartment sale prices in Suji-gu, Yongin, have risen 14.44 percent this year alone, the third-highest rate in the Greater Seoul area after Hwaseong's Dongtan-gu and Gwangmyeong. The area's easy commute to semiconductor business districts such as Pangyo, combined with strong access to southern Seoul via the Sinbundang Line, has underpinned steady price gains.

A similar pattern emerged in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province. In Gwonseon-gu, where apartment sale prices have risen 8.51 percent this year, a discretionary subscription for Suwon Station Honors Ville Time One ran from Sept. 10 to Sept. 11. The 84-square-meter A type drew 54 applications for four units and the 84-square-meter B type drew 57 applications for six units, for an average competition rate of 11.1 to 1.

In Seoul, even a complex that drew controversy over its high pre-sale price posted strong competition rates. Define Artia in Noryangjin-dong, Dongjak-gu, sparked debate when its 84-square-meter pre-sale price exceeded 2.7 billion won ($1.99 million), yet its unranked subscription rounds recorded peak rates of 171 to 1 in the first round and 111.5 to 1 in the second. Even the 109-square-meter A type, which carries a heavier financial burden than smaller units, drew 33 applicants for five units in the second round — a rate of 6.6 to 1.

Where a near-certain price gain has made a subscription look like a lottery jackpot, tens of thousands of applicants have piled in. A single 84-square-meter C unit at Songpa Signature Lotte Castle in Songpa-gu, Seoul — re-offered after its original contract was canceled following the detection of illegal activity — drew 90,443 applicants. The unit was priced at around 1 billion won ($735,000) in total, including optional extras, roughly half the surrounding market price.

Experts expect the polarization to persist. "Competition rates in the so-called zubjub market depend on the gap between the pre-sale price and the market price — in other words, the size of the safety margin," said Yoo Sun-jong, a real estate professor at Konkuk University. "In preferred locations and transit-oriented areas where market demand keeps prices rising, applications are bound to concentrate."