Zelensky pushes back against Trump, but Ukraine cannot survive without US support

Ukraine has reduced its dependence on US military support through domestic weapons development and expanded European assistance, but critical gaps remain — particularly in Starlink satellite communications and ballistic missile early warning — where no viable alternative to the United States exists.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (local time) that the extent of Ukraine's vulnerability, should Washington cut off support entirely, has been starkly exposed amid US President Donald Trump's demands that Ukraine halt strikes on Russian oil facilities and that President Volodymyr Zelensky step down.

A recent restriction on access to Starshield — the military version of SpaceX's commercial Starlink satellite internet service — slowed Ukrainian drones and significantly degraded their ability to intercept Russia's latest jet-propelled drones. One unit reportedly lost control of a drone mid-flight due to the communications disruption, preventing it from destroying a Russian weapons outpost.

The move is widely seen as retaliation after Zelensky pushed back against Trump's decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel imports ahead of US midterm elections, a step Trump said was aimed at stabilizing domestic prices.

Zelensky has vowed to resume strikes on Russian oil facilities and leveled sharp criticism at Trump, but Ukraine has few good options in response.

Europe and Canada are developing satellite communications systems comparable to Starlink's capabilities, but deployment in the field is not expected before 2028 at the earliest.

The US ballistic missile early warning system, central to Ukraine's air defenses, also has no substitute. Developed over decades of Cold War competition with the Soviet Union, the system detects heat signatures at launch and tracks missiles through a global radar network. It is essential for Ukrainian forces to target incoming Russian missiles and issue evacuation alerts to civilians. European allies have stepped up the provision of satellite and aerial intelligence to Ukraine, but the Wall Street Journal said the precision and coverage of that intelligence falls clearly short of what the US early warning network provides.

Ukraine's air defense system for intercepting Russian ballistic missiles is also almost entirely dependent on the United States. The Patriot air defense system — one of the few platforms capable of shooting down ballistic missiles — is manufactured by US defense contractor Lockheed Martin.

With Ukraine's Patriot interceptor missiles reported to be running low, the SAMP/T NG air defense system made by the Franco-Italian joint venture Eurosam is being transferred to Ukraine, but it is not sufficient to immediately fill the capability gap.

Ukraine's intelligence services have built their own picture of Russian infrastructure and military assets by drawing on allied intelligence, their own drones, human sources and closed-circuit television footage hacked from inside Russia.

Even so, the United States has played a significant role in helping Ukraine strike Russian military assets. A European military official said US technology and intelligence had contributed precise targeting data — including altitude information — that allowed Ukraine to refine its strike packages.

Intelligence on weak points in Russia's air defense network has been particularly valuable, helping Ukraine plot drone and missile routes that evade Russian interception. The F-16 fighter jets Ukraine received from European countries also depend on the United States for spare parts, software updates and weapons systems, meaning their operational readiness would collapse if US support were cut off.

Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst and head of Gady Consulting, said Ukraine had genuinely reduced its reliance on the United States compared with the early days of the war in 2022, but added that "the remaining dependence is concentrated in critical areas — and that is the problem."

Meanwhile, Zelensky is scheduled to meet a large number of EU leaders in Brussels, Belgium, on Friday.

Arriving in Brussels on Thursday, Zelensky held a series of bilateral talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, French President Emmanuel Macron, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. The diplomatic push is seen as an effort to secure more active military and financial support from Europe as tensions with Washington deepen.