4 key Senate battlegrounds could be called before midnight; Kentucky a House bellwether

Results from four of the most closely watched US Senate battlegrounds could take shape before midnight Eastern time Tuesday (local time) — 2 p.m. Wednesday Korean Standard Time — as the American midterm elections get underway.

Seven states are drawing the most attention in the Senate race: Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska. NBC projected that winners in Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Texas could be called before midnight.

Those states moved through vote-counting relatively quickly during the 2024 presidential election, and more than 80 percent of ballots are expected to be tallied before midnight. NBC's Decision Desk said it would call races earlier than expected if the margin between candidates proves wider than polling suggested, and later if the margin is narrower.

The Associated Press also projected that states including Ohio could reach 90 percent counted after 11 p.m., enabling calls to be made — a pace comparable to the 2024 presidential election. South Carolina, flagged as a competitive race by some outlets, was expected to show a clear picture around 11 p.m.

Assuming the remaining 28 Senate races fall in line with existing polling, the results from those four battleground states will serve as a first major indicator of which party — Republican or Democratic — comes out ahead.

If Democrats sweep all four, their odds of winning a Senate majority rise sharply — though they would still be one seat short of the "magic number." Democrats need to win five of the seven competitive states to claim the majority. Conversely, Republicans would be well-positioned to hold the majority if they win three or more of the four.

The second major turning point will be Michigan, where vote-counting moves more slowly. Michigan administers elections at the township level rather than the county level, scattering the counting process and creating wide variation across regions. Wayne County — home to Detroit, the state's most populous area — is expected to release a large batch of results between midnight and 3 a.m. Eastern (5 p.m. KST).

The AP noted that Michigan did not reach 90 percent counted until 5 a.m. on the morning after the 2024 presidential election.

If Democrats flip all four Republican-held seats called earlier in the night and also hold their own seat in Michigan, they could effectively clinch a Senate majority by Wednesday morning. If they fall short of the magic number by then, the overall Senate picture could remain unsettled for several more days.

That uncertainty stems from the ranked-choice voting (RCV) systems used in the remaining battlegrounds of Maine and Alaska. Under RCV, voters rank all candidates in order of preference. First-choice votes are counted first; if no candidate clears a majority, the last-place finisher is eliminated and those ballots are redistributed to each voter's next choice. The process repeats until someone wins a majority.

Alaska, at the far western edge of North America, is the last state to finish voting and counting, and it has frequently taken weeks to confirm a majority winner. The final Senate battleground could therefore remain unresolved for an extended period.

The AP said that in the 2024 election, roughly 25 percent of Alaska's total ballots had not been counted by election night. Most mail-in ballot results — which could decide the outcome — are not expected to be available before Nov. 18 this time either.

In the House, Democrats need just three more seats than they currently hold to win the majority. US media outlets broadly expect Democrats to reclaim control without major difficulty.

If the margin between the two parties comes down to single digits, NBC said, seats in Maine and Alaska would factor into the final tally, potentially delaying a majority call by about a week. Even so, NBC identified Kentucky's 6th Congressional District and Florida's 14th Congressional District as early bellwethers for the House, and the AP also flagged Kentucky's 6th District as a result to watch.

Kentucky is a reliably Republican state — President Donald Trump won it by 15 percentage points in the last presidential election. If the Republican candidate wins the 6th District by only a single-digit margin this time, it would be a positive sign for Democrats' House prospects. A double-digit Republican margin would suggest the two parties end up closely matched in the chamber. A Democratic win there would signal a "blue tsunami."